[wahern]

That's what I mean by preternatural instinct. Yes, he's impulsive and a textbook narcissistic archetype. But that's not all he is. He's Donald Trump for a reason--someone who is successful almost despite himself. For decades everybody around him loses but he always worms his way out before the house of cards falls. However, avoiding the consequences is nearly impossible to do if he attempts to invade Iran, even if he had objectively good reason to.

At the very worst we may end up fighting a proxy war through Israel and Saudi Arabia and wrecking even more havoc in the ME, but there won't be another Iraq.

In that sense he's reliable and predictable. Russia knows this. China knows this. Iran, Saudia Arabia, and Israel, however... they may be cocky enough to try to manipulate Trump into doing things he simply won't do and is perhaps incapable of doing, and things will go sideways for them. For the U.S. our cost will be in treasure and reputation, which will be par for the course.