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by tmh79 2596 days ago
the problem with this analogy is that digital cameras worked, self driving cars don't
1 comments

That's a bit of hindsight; digital cameras didn't work for many use cases for a long time.
Digital cameras also didn’t kill or injure people when their limitations were reached.

I remember the QuickTake and all that. Yes, those small pixelated images weren’t the same quality as film but they had other benefits instead.

Self driving cars currently aren’t in a state where they can do anything, even waymo still has safety drivers.

Did pre-digital cameras kill people?

Because dumb cars with dumb humans in them kill far more than self driving cars do.

Vast majority of accidents are caused by drivers (or cyclers, pedestrians) who fail to safely engage in traffic. For the most part, cars don't kill people - people kill people (or, get themselves killed).
> people kill people

which is exactly why removing people out of the equation is the best way to solve the problem. even fully educated and hyper responsible person is not immune to judgement lapses, hallucinations, heart attacks, strokes, losses of consciousness and many more modes of failure.

what's worst - even if i'm 100% sure about myself, even if i take myself out of the equation - there are still thousands murderous humans driving around me.

humans should not be driving cars.

Unfortunately we don't have anything other than humans that can do the job yet. And it's possible we might never have.
Self-driving's problem isn't that it 'doesn't work in many use cases'. The problem is finding a single use case where today's L4 technology can actually be used given the technological, legal, PR and cost considerations.
Exactly - it's more about recognizing the shift that will happen if the technology can work and what that will mean.

GM seems to think it's important since they bought Cruise in the first place, but instead of seeing failure on this as an existential threat it seems more like a side project for them.

From the outside this seems like a bad strategy and will only succeed if it turns out self-driving is impossible (which seems unlikely).

Digital cameras were toys until suddenly they weren't and then Kodak died - even though they had invented the digital camera in the first place.

It's not enough to have the tech, you have to prioritize it in the business. Xerox PARC is another example of this type of failure.

Super Cruise, GM's Autopilot competitor, is planning to be fleet-wide by 2020[1]. But that is L2/L3 stuff, which is different than the L4 technology Cruise is focused on. You can't put L4 into GM's cars because it's not ready - it's probably dangerous and I'm doubtful it would be cost effective given the prices of sensors and the fact that you need to turn the car into a rolling datacenter.

[1] https://mashable.com/article/super-cruise-cadillac-ct5-sedan...

Cool - getting that fleet wide is what I was talking about.

It still seems like they’re being pretty slow about it.