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by toomuchtodo 2599 days ago
Unemployment hasn’t been this low in 40 years. Those drivers are gonna get sucked right up into the economy lickety-split.
3 comments

Unemployment is low, but workforce participation is also low. There are plenty of people not working, and those who are aren't being much more than they were ten years ago, despite inflation.
Prime age (25-54) labor participation has been climbing steadily since 2015, and while not 100% recovered, it is quite close to pre-08 numbers. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

The graph people like to cite when they say nothing has gotten better, the "plain" one: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART , is fairly misleading without context. That one is calculated simply based on the non-instutionalized (prison/hospital) population over age 16.

There's a number of major contributors to that one that make it unlikely to ever recover in my view. Some notable points:

- Aging. The US might be aging slower than many other developed countries, but median age is climbing, there are more retirees as a % of the over 16 population each year. Each one of those counts against the labor participation rate.

- Employment in the 16-19 age bracket has plummeted, down ~15% since the 90s. College attendance, societal changes, etc.

Do we have the raw data to calculate the participation rate of 24-60 year olds over time?
Nominal wages have risen enough over the past 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 decades such that real wages have remained roughly flat across that time (and in last 2 decades real wages have risen in general).

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us...

The wage part is incorrect. Wages have been growing the past years
If that were true, and they were unhappy with their situation, they'd already have left.
The ones I've talked to are generally quite happy with their gigs with Uber and Lyft. (That should not be surprising, given how easy it is to drop out if they are unhappy with the deal, conditions, or other aspects of the task.)
there are lots of people who take Uber/Lyft as second jobs to fill otherwise unproductive evenings.