Unemployment is low, but workforce participation is also low. There are plenty of people not working, and those who are aren't being much more than they were ten years ago, despite inflation.
Prime age (25-54) labor participation has been climbing steadily since 2015, and while not 100% recovered, it is quite close to pre-08 numbers. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
The graph people like to cite when they say nothing has gotten better, the "plain" one: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART , is fairly misleading without context. That one is calculated simply based on the non-instutionalized (prison/hospital) population over age 16.
There's a number of major contributors to that one that make it unlikely to ever recover in my view. Some notable points:
- Aging. The US might be aging slower than many other developed countries, but median age is climbing, there are more retirees as a % of the over 16 population each year. Each one of those counts against the labor participation rate.
- Employment in the 16-19 age bracket has plummeted, down ~15% since the 90s. College attendance, societal changes, etc.
Nominal wages have risen enough over the past 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 decades such that real wages have remained roughly flat across that time (and in last 2 decades real wages have risen in general).
The graph people like to cite when they say nothing has gotten better, the "plain" one: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART , is fairly misleading without context. That one is calculated simply based on the non-instutionalized (prison/hospital) population over age 16.
There's a number of major contributors to that one that make it unlikely to ever recover in my view. Some notable points:
- Aging. The US might be aging slower than many other developed countries, but median age is climbing, there are more retirees as a % of the over 16 population each year. Each one of those counts against the labor participation rate.
- Employment in the 16-19 age bracket has plummeted, down ~15% since the 90s. College attendance, societal changes, etc.