Just going off of memory, I believe I read that gasoline consumption has plateaued, meaning we're weaning off of it and it's being supplemented by alternative sources. I think it's a fair assumption that this indicates a shift that will lead to declining numbers in the next 20-30 years, if not sooner.
It's more complicated than that. Some things keep growing (air traffic for instance), some not (power plants planning/construction for instance) and some seem in decline (ICE cars).
You can add the apples and oranges up and get different results, depending on your judgment. And you get to choose what to assume: You may assume that what happens in California in 2019 definitely won't happen in the rest of the US in the coming years, or that it will. Et cetera.
So I think this story sounds incomplete. I do not think it is mutually exclusive to say that the Bosch burner factory is shutting down and that 95% of all new cars sold worldwide are combustion engine powered. German labor is extremely expensive and German taxes are incredibly high. Welcome to the global economy.
I find it much more likely that much like everything else, the Chinese car market wants cars manufactured in China and that those China factories source from Chinese vendors. It's no different than the electronics industry.
If you follow the links, you see that the reduced demand forcecasts are worldwide and most of the layoffs involved are in low-cost countries. Most the companies mentioned are global leaders in their small field (like one of the companies mentioned, which produces not cars, not engines, not cylinders, but parts for cylinders, and 80% of its workforce are in low-wage countries, and its customers are all over the world).
A region in Germany is likely to be badly affected and that gets most of the wording. Don't let that fool you. When the investor guidance says "challenging outlook", it doesn't mean "we'll lay off a few people at HQ but the factories will be fine".
> Electric cars are still less than 5% of new car market. Hardly impactful
That is up from <1% five years ago, in a market where demand spurs demand by increasing availability of charging points etc. Meanwhile the EV market is currently production capacity constrained and multiple companies are expanding production capacity.
I doubt we're going to be at 100% electric cars in ten years but I would not be surprised if it was somewhere in the mid double digits by then. And by that point it becomes a lot easier to target ICE cars with legislation because there is a proven viable alternative.
> The increase in efficiency is more than offset by the growth in overall car market
Any given factor is more than offset by the growth in the overall car market. But you add them all together.
> Potential legislation in China? India? Emerging markets? Sorry but nothing suggests that is happening
China has a slate of domestic electric car companies and it's exactly their style to pass legislation that favors domestic companies over foreign competitors. Climate change provides them a really good justification to do that here.
And carbon taxes generate revenue, which makes it easy to make them revenue neutral. Use the money to lower other taxes or fund a UBI. This knocks out the "harms the poor/developing countries" argument because the cost becomes only the cost difference between fossil fuels and alternatives, which is rapidly approaching zero.
Moreover, most of the current oil demand comes from the US and Europe. If either of them, much less both, passed relevant legislation then not only would their own demand fall off, the increased economies of scale and network effects that would spur in alternatives would also make them more cost effective in countries without any such legislation.
60% of new cars sold in Norway recently were EVs. That's a start, and a good one at that. I'd be highly doubtful that EVs won't continue to gain steam over the next decade, as VW, Porsche, Audi, Volvo, Ford, GM, and Toyota continue to expand EV production lines and models.
> Rising popularity of electric cars
Currently very slow - needs to accelerate a lot to be significant in 2030 (thats only 11 years).
> increasing vehicle efficiency in general
There is not much to gain, the vehicles are gaining weight in the last 2 decades (SUVs etc.). Thats eating up the small improvements in efficiency. A real big improvement is not in sight.
> potential legislation targeting climate change
We can hope for that, but with Trump in charge and Merkel in Auto-Germany ruling the EU it won't really happen. Hopefully this will change.
> Rising popularity of electric cars Currently very slow
Starting from the 2019 the range and price came to the point where they are suddenly viable in EU.
Then there will be a used electric car wave because of the low-power charging infrastructure catching up and making older short range models actually useful.
Currently the prices of the used electric cars are crazy. You get a brand new gasoline car for the same price as an 6 year old VW e-up!. The Renault Zoe is still 30k EUR (including battery) for a small car with low to mid range (150 - 300km; depends on the model and year).
Well, we will see. As a German I can not believe it will happen, all our big car companies talking about it for like 8 years now. We had the goal of 1 mio. EV cars by 2020 in 2017 we have 54.99 (pure EVs) and about 160k hybrid. Thats 0.1 % EVs. Our gov pays you 4000 € bonus if you buy a EV, they still have budget for this campaign because of the low EV sales. Even the diesel-gate did not had a real effect, now everybody is buying gasoline cars.
VW announced the I.D. and a new e-up! But it is all only announcements, currently the cheapest car, the e-up! isn't even order-able. BMW announced the i2 (cheaper version of the i3) but it will take till 2021 to get one.
I hope you are right, but at least here it does not look like it.
A more realistic assessment from Shell Oil is that oil demand continues to grow over the next 20 years, a view shared by rival BP and energy consultants like Wood Mackenzie. https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2018/09/18/forecast...
Long-term oil demand is expected to increase by 15.8 mb/d, rising from 95.4 mb/d in 2016 to 111.1 mb/d in 2040 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/flipbook/WOO2017/WOO2017/asset... (page 101)