[hanniabu]

Just going off of memory, I believe I read that gasoline consumption has plateaued, meaning we're weaning off of it and it's being supplemented by alternative sources. I think it's a fair assumption that this indicates a shift that will lead to declining numbers in the next 20-30 years, if not sooner.

[max_wen]

Plateaued where? In California and Europe maybe but not in the rest of the world.

[Arnt]

It's more complicated than that. Some things keep growing (air traffic for instance), some not (power plants planning/construction for instance) and some seem in decline (ICE cars).

If you can read .de-ese: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/1.4371221

You can add the apples and oranges up and get different results, depending on your judgment. And you get to choose what to assume: You may assume that what happens in California in 2019 definitely won't happen in the rest of the US in the coming years, or that it will. Et cetera.

[max_wen]

thanks it translated pretty well.

So I think this story sounds incomplete. I do not think it is mutually exclusive to say that the Bosch burner factory is shutting down and that 95% of all new cars sold worldwide are combustion engine powered. German labor is extremely expensive and German taxes are incredibly high. Welcome to the global economy.

I find it much more likely that much like everything else, the Chinese car market wants cars manufactured in China and that those China factories source from Chinese vendors. It's no different than the electronics industry.

[Arnt]

If you follow the links, you see that the reduced demand forcecasts are worldwide and most of the layoffs involved are in low-cost countries. Most the companies mentioned are global leaders in their small field (like one of the companies mentioned, which produces not cars, not engines, not cylinders, but parts for cylinders, and 80% of its workforce are in low-wage countries, and its customers are all over the world).

A region in Germany is likely to be badly affected and that gets most of the wording. Don't let that fool you. When the investor guidance says "challenging outlook", it doesn't mean "we'll lay off a few people at HQ but the factories will be fine".

[max_wen]

i agree. the German factories will not be fine.