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by SatvikBeri
2661 days ago
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It's not super hard to get estimates like this, e.g. look at sales in comparable cities with or without stores, or how online sales changed after stores were opened. You won't get exact numbers but you should be able to get within a factor of 2, which is enough for most of these decisions. Companies like Warby Parker, etc. did this successfully at much smaller scales. |
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Consider the following:
* In January, the $7500 Federal Tax Credit became a $3750 Tax Credit for Tesla. The $3750 tax credit will be halved again some time this year.
* The price of the M3 has been in flux: the $35,000 car has been released, there were $2000 price drops (in reaction to the tax credit), and other issues.
* The M3 was a preorder vehicle: many people put down $1000 reservations, but its difficult to measure exactly which vehicle they wanted (a lot of them seemed to be waiting for the $35k version). Attributing the sales to preorders vs sales conversions is clearly a difficult problem.
* The M3 availability fluxuated grossly, based on Tesla's ability to produce it. You may be waiting 6+ weeks for a M3 if you ordered in 2018, but only 2 weeks if you ordered more recently. Simple knowledge of the decreasing wait time would spur many to purchase in of itself.
* Consumer Reports, and other major review magazines, released reviews which almost assuredly changed sales numbers.
The sales are just not stable enough on a month-to-month basis to do what you're suggesting.