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by lordnacho 2726 days ago
Pop-econ, as a subgenre of pop-science, is a necessary evil.

The thing about econ is it's closely connected to political philosophy, and politics causes all sorts of partisan issues. Witness the furore over Piketty's work over recent years.

So why do I say it's necessary and evil?

Well it's necessary because it's often the only way for someone outside of academia to get an overview of a topic. Without these kinds of work we'd be lost rifling through various journal papers, not knowing which ones are considered important and which ones not.

It's evil because that editorial power is seductive. To sell books, that author needs to make a forceful point. To do that, you can't just leave the evidence at "inconclusive", even though that might be sensible. Why write a book at all if it says "we don't know"? So we get selection bias in what books are written.

A friend of mine writes pop-econ books, and from a very libertarian point of view. Something about it seems like a just-so story. The inherent noisiness of economic evidence is lost, all the graphs are cherry picked to support his view. And yet you'd have to dig quite a lot to find specific things to complain about.

I studied economics myself, and on a lot of things I thought the stack of papers had good arguments one way and the other. My tutor, a famous Marxist, was also quite good at giving the free market side of evidence, so it's not like he was all one-sided.

My main concern is that people who haven't had a bit of exposure to economics at university think that it's like picking up A Brief History of Time. Basically true, but for laymen (wonder what a real physicist would think, heh). In actuality a lot of it is opinion, disguised as science. (In fact I tend to view a lot of economics like that; Opinions well defended by some sort of evidence.)

2 comments

> Why write a book at all if it says "we don't know"?

Related to this, someone commented on the /r/AskHistorians discussions linked by the article [1]:

> What I like about history is that it teaches you humility. Even if you spend years researching a small topic, there will be so much that you don't and never will know. Political science is the opposite with lots of helicopter opinioning. New crisis in Mali? Here I come with my insta-factoids and world explanations

The fact is that around these parts of the world (Eastern Europe - The Balkans) people have started wars and a lot more people have died as a result of those wars, only because one hundred years ago some historian just couldn’t say “we just don’t know” after dedicating all of his career to a specific topic (like “who was the first one between populations A, B and C to have occupied this land?”). In the meantime historians have smarten up a little, it’s not all black and white, there are a lot of “maybes”, of “we need more data to answer that question” or even “this question will probably never be answered in a satisfactory matter”.

Meanwhile, I’m pretty sure people are dying at this very moment because, like you said, some political scientist or economist just couldn’t say “we don’t know” or even “it’s complicated”.

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/16zhk7/as_a_...

That's not history vs political science, that's academic research va public policymaking.
“Public policymaking” treats a lot of the present political science and economic discourse as, well, established and tested science, hence all the troubles I mentioned. The same thing used to happen to history, there were a lot of past political decisions taken only because an historian had written a good book or two about a specific subject, but fortunately for historians that train has passed. That partially happened thanks to people like Popper writing about the “Poverty of historicism” and about how we shouldn’t treat history like a “hard science” and especially how we shouldn’t take important policy decisiond based on what history says or doesn’t say, I feel that economics and public political science also need their Popper moment.
"Something about it seems like a just-so story. The inherent noisiness of economic evidence is lost, all the graphs are cherry picked to support his view. And yet you'd have to dig quite a lot to find specific things to complain about."

Perhaps your friend could do a really popular debunking book called 'Stop trying to manage noise' and make a fortune? I'm actually a bit serious, so many people do not understand the idea of sampling error and associated noise in data.

You mean like Huff's "How To Lie With Statistics"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics

Yeah that's a classic. But it takes a lot of effort to pick apart those kinds of things. Some of the logic is very subtle and gets lost if you're also in a partisan debate.