[logfromblammo]

In my mind, modular homes are factory-built pieces that are assembled on-site, and design-sized for the 8.5' W by 13.5' H by 53' L volume envelope and 6 ton/axle weight limit of a standard US highway semi-trailer. International modules would have to design around the 40' ISO shipping container--either to go go in one, or to function as one.

The hotel-rooms-in-a-box on the linked page are like saying that a single 2x4 LEGO block, with all the studs filed down flat and holes cut in the sides, is a modular building system.

Even double-wide manufactured homes are more modular, in that they come in left-half modules and right-half modules, that get joined together at the build site.

The curation has somehow left out all the manufacturers that can crank out four 53' x 8.5' modules in 60 days, deliver them all to your flat-slab foundation, and bolt them all together to make an 1800 sq.ft. ranch-style home that meets code and actually has enough space for your kids to have their own rooms. And most of those are less than $140k for the structure. Cost average is $50/sq.ft. for stock structure designs, $10-$20/sq.ft. for customizations, $5-$10/sq.ft. for delivery, maybe $15-$25/sq.ft. for site prep and foundation, $20/sq.ft. for utility connections, permits, finishing, and everything else.

This is boutique-style homes manufacturing. If you want to make a business of it, as implied by the AirBnB rental prices, skip this curated list, and go with a larger manufacturer with a factory within 100 miles of your build site.

If your modular home is pushing past $150/sq.ft. with all costs but site purchase included, you are not competitive in your market, and are approaching being uncompetitive with custom site-built homes. At $400/sq.ft., your business will die shortly after selling to the 50 customers that want to spend $100k and yet still live inside a shoebox.

[dsfyu404ed]

Lots of modular homes (and many mobile homes) exceed the 8.5x53 envelope. When you're already doing all the stuff required to move a house or a significant chunk of a house getting an additional piece of paper (oversize permit) doesn't really up the complexity and cost all that much.

Other than that I agree with what you've said.

[sgc]

This is true for most places, but expensive build locations like the Bay Area, where custom homes are $400-600+ psf allow for competitive modular in the 2xx price range.

[logfromblammo]

It's fun to watch Silicon Valley rediscover everything that the rest of America has already known about for decades.

The only way $200/'' modular competes anywhere connected to the US highway network is if their customers don't know anything about the market they're buying into. Or if they have legal protection from competition.

The only reason I can think of to explain why SV isn't already absolutely infested with offsite-manufactured homes is that all the municipalities are pulling out every type of local government shenanigan to halt their importation. Perhaps the homes shown on the OP site somehow exploit a loophole that otherwise keep the bigger manufacturers out. That stuff happens even in vanilla American suburbia, to keep the trailer-park atmosphere from invading the town, so I can easily imagine the comfortable California NIMBYs pulling their sharpest knives on anyone threatening property values.