[Findeton]

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though.

And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

[jimnotgym]

They may be voting no to the Brexit deal purely because they don't agree with it.

But you are painting this as a binary situation of 'The Deal' vs No deal. There is a third option, withdrawing notice to leave.

Parliament can choose to remain without any kind of referendum. In fact there was a case heard by the ECJ today to clarify this very fact. The UK's option to remain was undisputed, and the remaining legal arguments are simply over whether the remaining 27 states have to agree or not. The ruling is due at a later date.

[Findeton]

That's a technical possibility. But in reality, MPs just don't have the incentives to do that. They just wouldn't get elected next time. It's unthinkable that the UK would choose to remain without a referendum. And the thing is that as of now, a referendum (and I'm not even saying what should be asked there) is also not a politically viable option.

[graeme]

Once the UK is out, it's not so easy to get back in on the same terms. They'd have to go through the whole membership process again.

[dingaling]

> the whole membership process again

Again? The UK never joined the EU through a membership process, the EU evolved around it.

The terms would be different if the UK joined the EU by proper mechanism, but perhaps we shouldn't want to be in a club which has different rules for old vs new anyway?

[graeme]

I'm not sure I follow. Once the UK is out, it's out. In that case, to rejoin it would have to follow the process to join, no?

I mean, if it was 3 weeks later and no laws had changed maybe not, but past a certain point regulations would have diverged etc

[kyriakos]

Even if laws hadn't changed the other members will use it as an opportunity to take away some of the special deals that UK had pre brexit.

[jstanley]

Why would a big economic crisis follow a no-deal brexit?

[simonh]

Let me count the ways.

* All our manufacturing exports to Europe would suffer tariffs. 10% on cars for example.

* All our agricultural exports would be hit by tariffs.

* The legal basis for many of our financial services provided to Europe would disappear. Clearing for example.

* Imports and exports would suddenly be subject to customs inspections, introducing delays. No arrangements are in place for this.

* Many goods manufactured in Europe only count if a certain % of value comes from Europe. Parts made in the UK would not count anymore so European manufacturers using our parts would have to find alternatives. Cars are another big example, but there are many more.

* We would lose access to all the trade deals with non EU countries negotiated through the EU, which is (almost) all of them. E.g. the big new trade deal negotiated with Canada would no longer apply. Some minor trade deals through the commonwealth might survive, but it’s not much.

* We would probably end up defaulting on our €38bn obligations to the EU. Not as bad as a sovereign debt default, but not by much.

* Oh, and we’d probably also be in violation of our treaty obligations under the Good Friday Agreement, with unanticipatable consequences in Northern Ireland, except it wouldn’t be good.

So high end manufacturing and agriculture devastated, remaining trade (globally) obstructed, financial services crippled, debt default, political instability in NI. Some of those might be cushioned, but there’s no way it can all be significantly mitigated in a few months.

My hope is some sort of keep-it-as-it-is-for-now deal could be worked out. But that’s basically the May plan anyway.

[xbmcuser]

Many of the financial services/bank s have already moved out they won't go back even if the actual brexit doesn't happen

[paganel]

Adding taxes to almost half of the UK exports virtually over night is not going to be very pleasant. And that’s going to be the least of their worries.

[jimnotgym]

May I point to to the article the thread is about.

> What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

>The terrifying consequences if nothing is sorted

The title and subtitle should be enough to get the gist

[aetherson]

The article explains the reasoning well.