* All our manufacturing exports to Europe would suffer tariffs. 10% on cars for example.
* All our agricultural exports would be hit by tariffs.
* The legal basis for many of our financial services provided to Europe would disappear. Clearing for example.
* Imports and exports would suddenly be subject to customs inspections, introducing delays. No arrangements are in place for this.
* Many goods manufactured in Europe only count if a certain % of value comes from Europe. Parts made in the UK would not count anymore so European manufacturers using our parts would have to find alternatives. Cars are another big example, but there are many more.
* We would lose access to all the trade deals with non EU countries negotiated through the EU, which is (almost) all of them. E.g. the big new trade deal negotiated with Canada would no longer apply. Some minor trade deals through the commonwealth might survive, but it’s not much.
* We would probably end up defaulting on our €38bn obligations to the EU. Not as bad as a sovereign debt default, but not by much.
* Oh, and we’d probably also be in violation of our treaty obligations under the Good Friday Agreement, with unanticipatable consequences in Northern Ireland, except it wouldn’t be good.
So high end manufacturing and agriculture devastated, remaining trade (globally) obstructed, financial services crippled, debt default, political instability in NI. Some of those might be cushioned, but there’s no way it can all be significantly mitigated in a few months.
My hope is some sort of keep-it-as-it-is-for-now deal could be worked out. But that’s basically the May plan anyway.
Adding taxes to almost half of the UK exports virtually over night is not going to be very pleasant. And that’s going to be the least of their worries.
* All our manufacturing exports to Europe would suffer tariffs. 10% on cars for example.
* All our agricultural exports would be hit by tariffs.
* The legal basis for many of our financial services provided to Europe would disappear. Clearing for example.
* Imports and exports would suddenly be subject to customs inspections, introducing delays. No arrangements are in place for this.
* Many goods manufactured in Europe only count if a certain % of value comes from Europe. Parts made in the UK would not count anymore so European manufacturers using our parts would have to find alternatives. Cars are another big example, but there are many more.
* We would lose access to all the trade deals with non EU countries negotiated through the EU, which is (almost) all of them. E.g. the big new trade deal negotiated with Canada would no longer apply. Some minor trade deals through the commonwealth might survive, but it’s not much.
* We would probably end up defaulting on our €38bn obligations to the EU. Not as bad as a sovereign debt default, but not by much.
* Oh, and we’d probably also be in violation of our treaty obligations under the Good Friday Agreement, with unanticipatable consequences in Northern Ireland, except it wouldn’t be good.
So high end manufacturing and agriculture devastated, remaining trade (globally) obstructed, financial services crippled, debt default, political instability in NI. Some of those might be cushioned, but there’s no way it can all be significantly mitigated in a few months.
My hope is some sort of keep-it-as-it-is-for-now deal could be worked out. But that’s basically the May plan anyway.