[cbuq]

Sure, but that's like saying Yellowstone is going to erupt.

[dhosek]

More like saying that a geyser at Yellowstone is going to erupt. If you believe that the timeframe for the next recession is on par with the timeframe for the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

[mikeash]

I’ve lived through four or five recessions and there’s no indication this is any sort of anomaly. It’s more like saying that a hurricane is going to hit Florida. Predicting exactly when and how is nearly impossible, but we can say with almost complete certainty that it’s going to happen within a few years.

[scarejunba]

If few is three years or less time, you can make money on some options expiring Jan 2022. Have you bought them?

[mikeash]

And if it’s three years and a month?

[scarejunba]

Well, it's useful for me to know that your confidence of it happening in the next 3 years is low when you make your statement. I see that it is.

That's enough for me.

[mikeash]

Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”?

Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.

[scarejunba]

> Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”?

Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier.

I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.