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by scarejunba 2784 days ago
Well, it's useful for me to know that your confidence of it happening in the next 3 years is low when you make your statement. I see that it is.

That's enough for me.
1 comments
mikeash 2784 days ago
Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”?

Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.

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scarejunba 2784 days ago
> Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”?

Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier.

I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.

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mikeash 2784 days ago
Right. You said if a few is three, I responded to indicate that it’s looser than that, and you then basically assumed I’m a liar rather than considering that the “if” might be wrong.

If you’re not interested in a bet, why did you reply to me to ask if I’ve made one?

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