[toomuchtodo]

I think it's important to recognize that Tesla is (partially) a technology deflation play (its also a financial engineering play, but that is out of scope for this thread).

Their ability to deliver is a function of the costs of their basic technology supplies (batteries for the Roadster were expensive, less so for the S, X, and energy storage, and now even less so for the 3). This is very similar to the cost decline curve of solar, wind, and storage in the utility energy space (project developers provide bids based on where prices will be in 3-5 years).

Tesla can do this because technology and batteries rapidly decreases in cost every year. Need new autopilot compute hardware? It should be cheaper by the time they need to perform the swap to realize the capability. Need LIDAR? They'll find a way to install it, and the costs should be fairly reasonable per vehicle instead of thousands, or tens of thousands, if they went all in when it was expensive.

This is not unlike a technology startup, where technical debt you're going to pay off in the future is an acceptable tradeoff, so you push off the decision and/or work until the last possible moment (but no further).

[threeseed]

ALL of the other OEMs are building autonomous cars using LIDAR so cost isn't a factor.

And relating it to technical debt makes no sense as you have to design with LIDAR in the beginning.

[toomuchtodo]

Can you provide a citation to an OEM that is putting LIDAR in vehicles being sold to customers today?

[threeseed]

GM/Honda are partnering with Cruise. Fiat are partnering with Waymo.

Everyone is partnering with someone or organising supply deals. And everyone other than Tesla uses LIDAR.

Also I never said these cars were being sold today.

[toomuchtodo]

> Also I never said these cars were being sold today.

Then you're moving the goal posts. Tesla is selling cars today to people that they are (EDIT) targeting support of full autonomy, or have their hardware swapped to do so. Everything else is an experiment in a lab or on a track.

[dragonwriter]

> Tesla is selling cars today to people that will eventually support full autonomy, or have their hardware swapped to do so.

Well, Tesla claims that. It's quite possible that neither will happen.

[threeseed]

Some of us think that Tesla's technology is an experiment.

An incredibly dangerous one.

[toomuchtodo]

Federal regulators do not agree with your assessment.

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/315133...

> Federal regulators "did not identify any defects" in Tesla's autopilot feature after a lengthy investigation of the technology, officials announced Thursday.

> A six-month investigation failed to uncover any flaws with the autopilot's emergency breaking technology and other advanced features linked to a deadly accident last year, according to a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) report released Thursday.

> "NHTSA’s examination did not identify any defects in design or performance of the AEB or Autopilot systems of the subject vehicles nor any incidents in which the systems did not perform as designed," the NHTSA report said.