[bluGill]

To play devils advocate: electric cars are a niche, Sure Tesla can sell out. The niche is large enough - for more players, but ultimately electric cars will top out at a small fraction of the total vehicle market.

Of course this is predicting the future. Nobody does that well. In a few years we will have facts, but that doesn't say much about the future beyond that.

[daveFNbuck]

That's the future that governments are trying to avoid by subsidizing electric cars and/or restricting gasoline-powered cars.

[bluGill]

There are some disadvantages of electric cars which may or may not be solvable.

[xxs]

>majewsky - Charge times, charging with higher voltage decreases the battery capacity. - Some cities may require major grid upgrades, peaks consumption may rise significantly - A lot of power still comes from coal which doesn't solve much as emissions go.

Overall it all revolves, around energy density, inability to store electricity efficiently, charge times and battery degradation (lots of them are not produced in very renewable manner)

[nielsbot]

Sure, some ICE may remain around for special uses, but I guess the vast majority of people will be fine w an electric car. (Especially in 2030)

[logifail]

By coincidence, I'll be picking up a brand new (ICE) vehicle from my dealer in just over 12 hours' time.

The electric version of the vehicle I'm buying costs just a shade over twice as much(!) as the ICE version.

I'm not fine paying more than twice as much for a product that in many respects is "less good".

[strommen]

2x cost for electric is not typical. The average cost premium is more like 10-15k (and the US government will allow you a $7,500 tax credit for the electric).

Of course the top-selling electric vehicles (Tesla and Leaf) don't have a direct ICE equivalent so it's tough to compare...

[logifail]

Converted to USD: I'll be paying $12.5k including taxes tomorrow for the new ICE vehicle, the electric version is priced at $26.5k

The salesman showed me the electric version. They are cool. For my usage pattern it would even be a good fit 90% of the time, lots of short trips from home.

The problem is that 10% of the time I'm on the road, and that's a bit of a deal-breaker.

The absolute killer is, of course, paying an additional $14k for a vehicle where the resale value will fall far more rapidly than the much cheaper ICE equivalent.

[emiliobumachar]

Good point, but how much of that is the manufacturer pre-compensating itself for all the extra maintenance that it won't sell you?

[logifail]

There's a healthy open market in servicing ICE vehicles.

I can take pretty much any kind of car to my local independent place - which happens to be less than 1/2 mile away - and they'll fix it for me. They'll stick to using original manufacturers parts unless I instruct them not to. If they think something ought to be covered by warranty and so ought to be looked at via the original manufacturer's servicing network, they'll decline the job and tell me why.

It's hard to imagine a system with less lock-in!

[stephengillie]

Unlike Tesla, the dealer performs the maintenance for other cars. Or maybe a 3rd party shop. Do they have a kickback agreement with the manufacturer?

How much does Tesla pre-compensate for the maintenance they won't authorize others to do?

[daveFNbuck]

Which is why governments that believe that the negative externalities of fossil fuels are worse than those disadvantages use legislation to tip the scales in the other direction.

[majewsky]

Such as?

If you're saying "range", I counter that most trips (e.g. most commutes) are well within the range limits of current BEVs.

[quickben]

Such as commuting an hour to work, that may turn out to be two, in Toronto's gridlock, during a cold wave of -45c.

"Most trips" doesn't work, the EV proponents want a ban on all ICE cars. Which would force part of the population to buy a truck and commute with it.

[majewsky]

> "Most trips" doesn't work, the EV proponents want a ban on all ICE cars.

Politics is all about compromise. You actually have to start out at an extreme position so that when you meet in the middle at the end, it's still somewhat reasonable.

There will be bans on ICE cars at some point, but with a lot of footnotes.

[dijit]

>Which would force part of the population to buy a truck and commute with it.

I think this is a symptom of a larger problem and despite the fact that people have this issue as of now should not strongly colour our perception of what's possible.

If you're commuting more than 2hrs to work by car then not only are you wasting a large percentage of your own life, but you're also harming the environment. It should not be a "given" that it's A) normal, B) done by a large portion of the population, C) hampering the endeavours to adopt vehicles that allow for a more sustainable energy acquisition.

Losing the ability to do a road trip? yeah, I buy that as a concern. But if you're one of the people affected by the range limitations of current EV's for commuting (one-way) then I have nothing but pity for you and I sincerely hope you either enjoy it or that your life improves (not being condescending, I really hope it gets better for you)

[quickben]

The problem is that companies are allowed to pile downtown to maximize profits, but that people should subsidize them in that as to not harm the environment. So, if a legal framework is being made to look at sustainability, ICUs are not the only thing that should be looked at.

Edit: colder climates will have a lot of problems adopting EVs, if ever on a mass scale.

[bluGill]

I'm playing devil's advocate here. Go look up the arguments yourself, and this time open your mind: range is a valid argument to the people making it. Even if realistically it isn't nearly as big a deal as they think, mental peace is more important than you seem to give it credit for.