[iamleppert]

Tesla has a product that people want, and, importantly appeals to the new generation of prospective car owners in a way the other auto manufactures can't come close to even hoping. Youth haven't really been interested in cars in the same way and with the same level of excitement they once were for awhile now until Tesla came along.

To put simply, they will eventually figure out their manufacturing and economies of scale (they are already well on their way to doing so) and when that happens it will be a dramatic rise and unseating of power. We've seen time and time again market share and dominance means very little in the long term and the ability to manufacture a car isn't an exclusive right to the current incumbents.

[ntsplnkv2]

We'll see. It seems that this debate has quickly polarized.

The Model 3 is still wildly expensive. The ones being shipped now aren't affordable cars. 35k really isn't affordable for a car either. It's firmly in the luxury market until 35k models ship. Even then, it doesn't make financial sense to buy a Tesla over another car without government incentives.

Charge time is a major issue and will be critical for Tesla to solve.

Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.

As for manufacturing, mechanically electric vehicles are far simpler. I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements, and most of the car already benefits from the already existing economy of scale on hardware and metal forming. The issue is 1000% the battery. Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery - making it cheaper, more reliable, longer lasting. That's the hard part - because increasing range decreases efficiency because of the size and weight of the battery.

I'm excited - I think with any changes that can disrupt a business a lot of resistance will be faced. But I hope Tesla succeeds.

[zaroth]

The TCO of a Model 3 at a MSRP of $35k is comparable to what... a ICE car at $25k? Maybe less. That's assuming all the cash incentives are long gone at that point, and gas stays above $3.00. It's a bit uncharitable to call that "wildly expensive" unless your context is a new grad buying their first ever used car.

> Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.

Actually, we have very good data for longevity of the Model S batteries, and it looks beyond great. [1] Reliability of drive train and suspension remains to be seen for the 3 since it's so new, but the expectation is that maintenance is significantly cheaper for an electric vehicle due to so much reduced complexity.

> ...I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements...

Says almost everyone ever about whatever the current state of the technology is they are currently discussing? Materials science is constantly improving, and it would be shocking to me if they are making the 3 basically the same way 20 years from now as they do today.

> Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery...

And hasn't Tesla proven that they are able to consistently drive battery costs down and density and reliability up? Tesla has hinted at $100/kWh costs by the end of 2018. They are at forefront of battery production, and have consistently pushed the envelope since the 900lb, 53kWh battery in the Roadster which cost something like $600/kWh to produce. [2]

[1] - https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...

[2] - https://www.tesla.com/blog/bit-about-batteries

[Latteland]

It's not rocket science of course (hah), they can just keep plugging away at manufacturing and get more and more efficient, eventually being as good as a "real automobile" company. I can't understand the continuing feeling that they can't just make more cars with practice, that people actually want to buy some of them. They aren't for everyone, but they are just fun electric functional cars.

[Gibbon1]

Advantage Tesla has is no legacy products of note. And most of the hard stuff they are trying to do is complex and expensive, but ultimately a solved problem.

Meaning there is no technical, economic, or skills related[1] reason that can't pull this off.

[1] Skills related. There are large numbers of engineers and techs that know how to work out Tesla's production issues. Meaning it's not like Tesla can't find people to fix these issues.

[DesiLurker]

Its time for Detroit & Japan to wake up to EVs. I don't own any tesla stock but my bold prediction is IF tesla is not bankrupt by this time next year, its going to wipe-the-floor with GM & the likes.

[mtgx]

Japan has fooloshly bet on fuel cells. Not sure because they wanted to be "different" than Tesla like Nokia once thought with Windows Phone, or some other reason. They'll pay the price for that error big time. Toyota actually had one of the first EVs in recent times but they completely abandoned it for 15 years as the elctric RAV4 saw almost no improvement in all this time.

[MrEfficiency]

I used to think HN comments were smart, until you read a thread about Automotive.

Then you realize that this board has no Auto experience, upvotes/downvotes based on their cult hero.

Since HN rules say we cant hypothesize about Tesla Astroturfing these threads, I'll just say that the information on HN regarding automotive is... questionable.

[dang]

Please don't break the site guidelines while pretending not to break them.

Please do correct misinformation with facts, especially if you know a lot about a field where most of HN doesn't. As long as you're civil and can back up what you're saying, that adds value.