[ntsplnkv2]

We'll see. It seems that this debate has quickly polarized.

The Model 3 is still wildly expensive. The ones being shipped now aren't affordable cars. 35k really isn't affordable for a car either. It's firmly in the luxury market until 35k models ship. Even then, it doesn't make financial sense to buy a Tesla over another car without government incentives.

Charge time is a major issue and will be critical for Tesla to solve.

Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.

As for manufacturing, mechanically electric vehicles are far simpler. I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements, and most of the car already benefits from the already existing economy of scale on hardware and metal forming. The issue is 1000% the battery. Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery - making it cheaper, more reliable, longer lasting. That's the hard part - because increasing range decreases efficiency because of the size and weight of the battery.

I'm excited - I think with any changes that can disrupt a business a lot of resistance will be faced. But I hope Tesla succeeds.

[zaroth]

The TCO of a Model 3 at a MSRP of $35k is comparable to what... a ICE car at $25k? Maybe less. That's assuming all the cash incentives are long gone at that point, and gas stays above $3.00. It's a bit uncharitable to call that "wildly expensive" unless your context is a new grad buying their first ever used car.

> Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.

Actually, we have very good data for longevity of the Model S batteries, and it looks beyond great. [1] Reliability of drive train and suspension remains to be seen for the 3 since it's so new, but the expectation is that maintenance is significantly cheaper for an electric vehicle due to so much reduced complexity.

> ...I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements...

Says almost everyone ever about whatever the current state of the technology is they are currently discussing? Materials science is constantly improving, and it would be shocking to me if they are making the 3 basically the same way 20 years from now as they do today.

> Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery...

And hasn't Tesla proven that they are able to consistently drive battery costs down and density and reliability up? Tesla has hinted at $100/kWh costs by the end of 2018. They are at forefront of battery production, and have consistently pushed the envelope since the 900lb, 53kWh battery in the Roadster which cost something like $600/kWh to produce. [2]

[1] - https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...

[2] - https://www.tesla.com/blog/bit-about-batteries