[vec]

> Bankers go away

People will still need loans. People will still want low risk investment vehicles to "store" their wealth in. At least some sizable number of them will want an institutional actor to handle operational security and insure against key loss.

> auditors go away

The blockchain mostly guarantees that a ledger hasn't been tampered with, but it doesn't guarantee that the transactions were correct and complete in the first place. Plus, it's trivially easy to transfer funds without it registering on the ledger; all I have to do is create a wallet and give the private key to you out of band somehow.

> credit requirements for market participation go away.

There are no credit requirements today, as long as you're only spending funds you have on hand. Credit requirements allow an actor to spend funds they don't actually possess with a reasonable expectation that they will be willing and able to produce those funds (plus interest) at some later date. Having the ledger public reduces, but doesn't eliminate, the need for the actual providers of those temporary funds to want to form some expectations of future performance.

Most of the ancillary infrastructure that's grown up around fiat currencies is there for really good reasons, and most of those reasons don't automatically go away when the underlying currency type changes.

[thedancollins]

You are not grasping the import of being able to exchange value WITHOUT a banking system in place.

As for the credit requirements comment, yes - good point. But in the case of a micro-transaction, realtime agreement. I can consume 15 minutes of power and pay for it at 15:01. A credit requirement still exists -0 but it is one second as opposed to 60-90 days worth of power. This idea assumes many things into existence that do no currently exist - I am merely offering the idea as a thought experiment. Blockchain could make everything pay-as-you-consume.

[vec]

I can exchange value today without a banking system in place. I have some paper currency in my possession, and if that doesn't work there are plenty of commodity goods available to barter with. You'll notice that even in situations where cash or barter are feasible the vast majority of actors opt into the banking system anyway.

Cryptocurrencies are genuinely useful for parties who don't have access to the formal banking system for one reason or another, but I've got every reason to believe that crypto-backed banks will still be profitable and that people will flock to them as soon as they're available.

As for microtransactions, I can also consume 15 minutes of some service and not pay for it at 15:01, then automatically generate another burner account to consume another 15 minutes. This might not work for power, since there's physical infrastructure that would have to be cut over, but it would work just fine for a very large number of other services. The service provider is going to pretty quickly generate some fraud prevention strategy to prevent you from doing that, and now we've reinvented credit requirements for market participation.

[thedancollins]

Yes, you have paper money in your possession that is only worth as much as a centralized bank SAYS it is. And the awesome thing about that is that centralized banks never print ridiculous amounts of money and devalue their own currencies. That would be crazy and short-sighted. What sort of idiots would do that?

Crytpocurrencies are useful to people for a variety of reasons. And if a bank wants to deal in crytpocurrency, that is fine with me. I am glad that you have no doubt they will be profitable but you are pulling such sentiment out of thin air. There is not a precedent for cryptocurrency and how it may affect and integrate with existing systems. But consider that if you consider having a bank involved is a good thing for cryptocurrency - you might not understand the point of blockchain.

And the final point, the ledger is open, and everyone can see everything. You must consider this aspect in your scenario. I would imagine such a microtransactions agreement manifested into a smart contract or if not, prepaid. But again, only at a 15 minute. There is a level of credit there but still much smaller than 30 days worth.

[vec]

> Yes, you have paper money in your possession that is only worth as much as a centralized bank SAYS it is...

Do you really want to bring volatility into this? Because in the real world fiats are orders of magnitude more stable than cryptos.

Besides, that's tangential to why people prefer banks to cash. If the Federal Reserve screws up and tanks the dollar I'm just as screwed regardless of whether my money's in a dollar-denominated bank account or a suitcase under my bed. Why do you think the vast majority of people prefer to keep their dollars in the bank instead of the suitcase?

> I am glad that you have no doubt they will be profitable but you are pulling such sentiment out of thin air.

I'm pulling that sentiment out of a basic understanding of a bank's business model and value proposition, neither of which are actually directly related to the underlying currency. We had banks with metal-backed currencies, we have them with fiats, and we're starting to see them with cryptos. Unless you can somehow convince me that Coinbase isn't a bank.

> And the final point, the ledger is open, and everyone can see everything.

Right, I can see that three dozen pseudonymous wallets owe me for 15 minutes of service each.

Anyway, the whole point of credit is I can't actually pay up today, but there's reason to believe I will be able to in 30 days. Or 6 months. Or 10 years.

[thedancollins]

>Because in the real world fiats are orders of magnitude more stable than cryptos.

Yes, but if you'll allow me a little latitude - the fiat currency is under centralized control. And in that case is remarkably stable - until it is not. And 2008 happens. Blockchain is decentralized and yes, volatile. But fiat currency is FALSELY stable - it is engineered to be stable by a centralized authority that does not understand what it is doing and the machinations are generating an increasingly problematic economic environment. I can't stress this enough - the stability that is trumpeted as such a wonderful aspect of fiat currency is manufactured and at the whim of fools.

And absolutely, point taken about banks. I do not fully appreciate the role of centralized banking and certainly, few do. I should qualify some of my statements with the idea that banking is an option, but not a necessity. and that optionality certainly applies to the marble facade we see all over the American landscape.

And finally, yes, you can setup as many accounts as you like - and that behavior will be partially obfuscated because those IDs do not have to be linked. But if you would please give me a modicum of credit (pun intended) - the smart contract would likely require its own level of background on any given ID. If shenanigans are present - the ID is not permitted access to the transaction. Or it might not care - I guess it would depend on the potential exposure. Trivial problems have trivial solutions. There are much bigger problems that would need to be tackled. Thoughts?

[vec]

> is remarkably stable - until it is not

I think we're saying mostly the same thing, just with slightly different framing.

We have one mechanism for maintaining a stable store of value (centrally managed fiat) that in practice seems to work well most of the time but periodically experiences catastrophic failures. We have another mechanism for maintaining a stable store of value (crypto markets) where catastrophic failure appears to be standard operating procedure. The first is far from ideal, for all the reasons you mention and many more, but from where I'm sitting it still seems like the lesser of two evils.

Also worth noting that central banks predate fiat currency. Back when currencies were metal-backed governments would hoard or release metal to try and control the market value. That's what Fort Knox is for. It didn't work as well as in fiat-world, because there are bounds to how much metal you can actually manage to store, but it worked well enough. It'll still work well enough when the Fed has a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that they can manipulate the market with.

> the smart contract would likely require its own level of background on any given ID

Oh, yeah, no halfway competent vendor is going to allow themselves to get scammed like this. And the technical solutions are pretty obvious. My whole point, though, is that we're almost immediately reinventing credit requirements for market participation.

-----

There are a lot of people making starry eyed predictions for exciting new developments that a crypto-based economy would allow to happen, but when you dig into the details the vast majority of those things are just as feasible under a halfway decent centrally-managed ACH system. There are also a lot of people joyously awaiting the collapse of large sectors of the financial system, but again when you dig into the details most of those sectors exist to solve problems and meet needs that are still present on a blockchain.

We've been through half a dozen currency transitions over the past few centuries. From precious metal coins to private scrip backed by precious metal to government scrip backed by precious metal to government scrip backed by fiat to paper transaction logging (checks) to electronic transaction logging (ACH), and the financial sector has not only survived but embraced the infrastructure shift every time.

Don't get me wrong, I've got my fair share of complaints about the modern financial system. But for good or ill I just don't see a fiat to crypto transition having anything close the apocalyptic effects that HN, collectively, seems to expect.

[dx87]

What benefit does transferring value with a blockchain have over any other method of transferring digital currency? People have been using chest keys and cosmetic items as currency on Steam for years, there are even sites where you can cash out and get money in exchange for digital currencies. Steam also has the benefit of being a point of authority that can handle fraud and theft.

[thedancollins]

I would offer that the value is the distributed ledger. Where everyone would see the quality of your business dealings because you kept them on a stable blockchain for all to see.