[thedancollins]

>Because in the real world fiats are orders of magnitude more stable than cryptos.

Yes, but if you'll allow me a little latitude - the fiat currency is under centralized control. And in that case is remarkably stable - until it is not. And 2008 happens. Blockchain is decentralized and yes, volatile. But fiat currency is FALSELY stable - it is engineered to be stable by a centralized authority that does not understand what it is doing and the machinations are generating an increasingly problematic economic environment. I can't stress this enough - the stability that is trumpeted as such a wonderful aspect of fiat currency is manufactured and at the whim of fools.

And absolutely, point taken about banks. I do not fully appreciate the role of centralized banking and certainly, few do. I should qualify some of my statements with the idea that banking is an option, but not a necessity. and that optionality certainly applies to the marble facade we see all over the American landscape.

And finally, yes, you can setup as many accounts as you like - and that behavior will be partially obfuscated because those IDs do not have to be linked. But if you would please give me a modicum of credit (pun intended) - the smart contract would likely require its own level of background on any given ID. If shenanigans are present - the ID is not permitted access to the transaction. Or it might not care - I guess it would depend on the potential exposure. Trivial problems have trivial solutions. There are much bigger problems that would need to be tackled. Thoughts?

[vec]

> is remarkably stable - until it is not

I think we're saying mostly the same thing, just with slightly different framing.

We have one mechanism for maintaining a stable store of value (centrally managed fiat) that in practice seems to work well most of the time but periodically experiences catastrophic failures. We have another mechanism for maintaining a stable store of value (crypto markets) where catastrophic failure appears to be standard operating procedure. The first is far from ideal, for all the reasons you mention and many more, but from where I'm sitting it still seems like the lesser of two evils.

Also worth noting that central banks predate fiat currency. Back when currencies were metal-backed governments would hoard or release metal to try and control the market value. That's what Fort Knox is for. It didn't work as well as in fiat-world, because there are bounds to how much metal you can actually manage to store, but it worked well enough. It'll still work well enough when the Fed has a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that they can manipulate the market with.

> the smart contract would likely require its own level of background on any given ID

Oh, yeah, no halfway competent vendor is going to allow themselves to get scammed like this. And the technical solutions are pretty obvious. My whole point, though, is that we're almost immediately reinventing credit requirements for market participation.

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There are a lot of people making starry eyed predictions for exciting new developments that a crypto-based economy would allow to happen, but when you dig into the details the vast majority of those things are just as feasible under a halfway decent centrally-managed ACH system. There are also a lot of people joyously awaiting the collapse of large sectors of the financial system, but again when you dig into the details most of those sectors exist to solve problems and meet needs that are still present on a blockchain.

We've been through half a dozen currency transitions over the past few centuries. From precious metal coins to private scrip backed by precious metal to government scrip backed by precious metal to government scrip backed by fiat to paper transaction logging (checks) to electronic transaction logging (ACH), and the financial sector has not only survived but embraced the infrastructure shift every time.

Don't get me wrong, I've got my fair share of complaints about the modern financial system. But for good or ill I just don't see a fiat to crypto transition having anything close the apocalyptic effects that HN, collectively, seems to expect.

[thedancollins]

Sorry it took me so long to get back to you. Yes, the breathless proclamations of blockchain Armageddon (or Paradise) are tiring. I agree. And it is part of my souring on the whole topic. There is potential for something like blockchain to make a radical impact. But you know how it is - freedom is wonderful but it comes at the cost of diligence. And banks are just so freaking comfy. And they seem to demand so little of us.

The idea of the government creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is interesting. You are right, whatever the current players can do to control any new financial instruments they will. I suppose the libertarian response to such an action on such a chain would be to abandon the chain. And I am WAY out over my skis here but there is a drastic difference between the money printing that is happening in America as opposed to the American govt attaching its keys to a large amount of a cryptocurrency. If they did that and did not transact with that coin then they could have a marked impact on the coin's liquidity and that would affect its value. It could also impact the transactability as fewer and fewer people would be active on that blockchain. But I keep coming back to the true difference being transparency and not being under centralized control as being the POTENTIAL game changers. I am not sure the populace has the stomach for such responsibility. Heck, I am not sure I do.