[ObsoleteNerd]

I heavily believe social networks will always be cyclical, as people always want excitement. A new social network launches, everyone gets excited for something new and different, it grows to the point where your grandma and your teachers or kids are on it too, you lose the excitement and start looking for the next "entertainment".

The world is moving faster than ever with entertainment and attention spans. Facebook is already showing signs of fizzling out. I don't believe it will die, just like MySpace and Digg are still going, they're just not the hot shit they once were. I think we're pretty much hitting the point now where Snapchat and Instagram are "hotter" than Facebook, and Facebook is running on momentum for a fair while longer before being "just another social network".

Instagram and Snapchat are in their peak right now. Everyone under 30 has both, and most over 30 at least have an account to follow their kids, friends, whatever. I think 10 years is even optimistic, I wouldn't be surprised if another transition happened within 5.

When Instagram and Snapchat lose their excitement, the next thing will come along. There's hundreds of startups already working on trying to be the next big social network. It's a given it'll happen eventually.

(I'm not in the industry and don't know stats, I don't use social networks other than following people on Twitter for updates, this is just the ramblings of someone watching it all for 20+ years)

[gt2]

You underestimate several things:

- the difficulty of changing services for the technically challenged.

- Facebook's technical prowess (much different than MySpace was)

- Facebook's variety outside of a pure social network (they are a news app, craiglist/classifieds, meetup/events, Picasa 10.0/photo app, messenger, and a myspace clone, all rolled into one, with new services added all of the time). Probably missed something else.

[xbmcuser]

Facebook stayed ahead in many ways by buying out it's future competition i.e Instagram and WhatsApp and tried very hard for snapchat without success so copied it with instagram. Most people in my extended family no longer post much on Facebook but are regular and heavy users of WhatsApp groups and instagram.

[fs111]

You make it sound as if instagram is unrelated to facebook. Facebook owns them and they have so much money that they will buy the next thing and the one after that as well. Facebook, the company, will do just fine.

[ObsoleteNerd]

Yes, that's my point. Facebook (the company) knows that Facebook (the social network) won't be the king forever, so buys up the competition like Instagram to make sure they (the company) are still around.

I was purely referring to the social networks. Who owns them is irrelevant for this point.

[laurex]

Social Media has seen ascendancy because it taps into a primal need of humans for connection and approval. Up to now, that's come with a price as the business needs of companies providing platforms have come first, leading people to think quantity of connections is desirable and to be endlessly pulled in with feeds and other media that aren't "connecting" at all, but stave off feelings in general. Perhaps we're coming closer to a crossroads where meaningful connections and actual communication will override the Facebook/Instagram model of dopamine triggers and passive connections.

[noelwelsh]

I agree with your general thesis. We approach these things as if we're building to last forever, but, particularly in consumer markets, it might be better to view them as more akin to disposable pop culture. The cycles may be longer than say, a restaurant---maybe closer to the life time of a band, or a fashion trend. Each generation has it's own style and possibly wants its own communication platform to go with it.