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by petra 2860 days ago
Maybe in the past, improving the economic situation would have been enough, given enough time.

Today, Hamas and the Israeli right wing leadership prevent any chance of advancement.

Now it's possible to see the right wing leadership changes, but it won't be easy. It's much harder to see Hamas, a religious extreme based dictatorship, change, without some drastic action, be it an internal revolution or a specific type of war from Israel, aimed at toppling down Hamas. And it's really hard to believe Hamas will change of it's own - extreme religions don't do that.

Both actions would be extremely bloody. A revolution often creates a new type of mess, and how the hell do you start a revolution? And an external war, if you could convince the Israeli public(a big if), even if it's for the Palestinians benefit, is a pretty terrible way to create the necessary goodwill.

2 comments

Gaza is a lost cause, the West Bank isn’t.

Without economic improvement and normalization there is no prospect for peace no Israeli government will take the chance on anything that isn’t already de facto the situation on the groun. As without it any concession will be met by a military entrenchment; Lebanon and Gaza proved that much in their eyes.

If the situation is normalized a federated system with a constitution simmilar to what Lebanon has that would guarantee Jewish sovereignty despite the possible demographics might be plausible.

So not a democracy then?

Gaza a lost cause...you really think you can make a deal on the West Bank only? While Israel has de facto control over many parts of the Gaza Strip in violation of Geneva Conventions? https://www.btselem.org/gaza_strip/israels_obligations

Edit: At least 9,733 Palestinians and 1,253 Israelis and have been killed by someone from the other side since 2000. At least 2,197 Palestinian children and 134 Israeli children have been killed by someone from the other side since 2000.

https://israelpalestinetimeline.org/charts/

Gaza fired what 300,000 rockets and mortars at Israel in the past 10 years? Do you expect any Israeli government to give them anything? I’m surprised they are as constraint as they are Turkey killed what over 50,0000 Kurds in the past 30 years and displaced 3 million of them for much less and I don’t see any big campus rallies against them.

And last time I checked Israel is a democracy, a federated state with a constitution to guarantee that is the only way for the situation not to deroriate into an apartheid or genocide.

Look HAMAS are awful but they are democratically elected in Gaza at least and have shown themselves to be a rational actor when it comes to deal making. For example offering as a negotiating tactic to remove parts of it's charter etc. It was similar in Northern Ireland where the people on the extreme edges ended up being the ones who made the deal. In theory it might have been the same in Israel but Bibi is weak and a coward.
Hamas was democratically elected. they don't rule democratically. they break the knees of people whoe speak against them, for example.
You can’t help but frame everything to fit your bias can’t you? Hamas’s human rights violations in Gaza and the West Bank are worse than anything Israel has done. Hamas took power by force not through any democratic process, parliamentary elections were not what went wrong in Gaza it’s military wing taking power in the Palestinian “civil war” was.
Worse? You know about Sabra and Shatila right?
Lebanese militias killing Palestinians has to do what with Israel?

Black September you know about that right? Want to blame that on the Israelis too?

Even in the region when it comes to Palestinian casualties Israel isn’t playing even in the same league as it’s Neighbors and world wide the scope of this conflict is so negligible it’s not even deserving of a footnote in the grand scheme of things yet over half of the UN declarations are about it.

The human scope of the conflict is nothing it’s far less than the drug violence in Mexico not to mention actual armed conflicts.

Heck 70 years of the conflict won’t amount to a few bad weeks in Syria.

The reason why it’s so easy to claim that criticism of Israel is anti-semitism is exactly because of the level of disproportionate attention this whole conflict is receiving and maybe just maybe if we tone it down a notch they’ll be able to solve it.

Tone it down? Its been 60 years and the roadmap for peace has been around for decades.

Have you read the reports about what happened? Both the UN and the Israeli one: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kahan_Commission

And no Black September was an awful, awful tragedy. The murder of innocent Israelis by Palestinan groups is a heinous act that rightfully shoulf always been condemned and punished.