[akmiller]

Perhaps their initial reason in shorting the stock was not inherently evil. But at this point they risk losing billions of dollars so their only incentive is to ensure the company fails.

I actually don't find their share price to be out of control at all. They have assets other companies would only dream of at this point. The data alone on miles driven is extremely valuable in the race to self driving cars. Their supercharger network is extremely impressive and growing every day. Not only do they build the best electric car, but they've built out the infrastructure that many analysts seem to just discount. Not unlike what Amazon did (and is still doing).

[mattmaroon]

I would consider data to be an argument in favor of the big three. Tesla only sells about 100000 cars a year. Ford's top-selling model, the F-series, is almost eight times that. I'm assuming you mean some data that Tesla is currently collecting that Ford cannot, but it would be a matter of not much money for them to do so. They can add whatever sensors they need in the next year's F150 and within a few months have more data than Tesla has collected in its entire existence.

It's not clear to me that Tesla is in the lead on driverless cars, or that driverless cars will initially be all electric. The economic benefit of being electric might outweigh the fact that it will spend a quarter of its time charging, or it may not. If we move to an Uber Style On Demand model of car usage rather than ownership I am not sure.

And I'm still not saying that Tesla won't succeed, or even that they will not at some point be the most profitable automaker. But their share price is so inflated that you have to believe they will do it very quickly to pay it. There's a very strong chance that the market as a whole is going to outperform TSLA even if they succeed for the next 5-10 years first

[akmiller]

True, but it is not only the data. Even if it was why aren't the big 3 doing this already? Tesla is a technology company more-so than a car company. They employ the engineers focusing on machine learning and gathering the right data to support that. This would be a brand new area for Ford, Chevy, etc... I'm guessing. Not that they couldn't ramp up, but I don't think it would be as easy as you seem to suggest.

Walmart had the funds to overcome and mimic what Amazon was doing early on as well and they didn't. Why not? Some companies are set in their ways and have trouble seeing the future...or at least be willing to sacrifice short term revenue goals for long term gain (often times big profitable companies act this way).

TBH, I own a Tesla. I agree they are likely not the leader in the best technology for driverless cars, they are definitely the leader in affordable driverless cars. The interesting thing is autopilot gets better and better on streets you drive over and over again. Tesla's have ruined my experience for driving any other car. I'm sure someone else will make some great electric cars in the future as well, but right now there is nothing that compares to it overall.

Edit: To add one other point on my initial paragraph (and coincides with my last). Tesla not only gathers the data but has the autopilot features to be able to test changes to the algorithms in place and improve them over time. Even if the big 3 started collecting this data they are far behind in the ability to even simulate much less enable it for real feedback on the roads.

[timr]

"True, but it is not only the data. Even if it was why aren't the big 3 doing this already? Tesla is a technology company more-so than a car company. They employ the engineers focusing on machine learning and gathering the right data to support that. This would be a brand new area for Ford, Chevy, etc... I'm guessing. Not that they couldn't ramp up, but I don't think it would be as easy as you seem to suggest."

They are. GM is investing billions into self-driving cars and electric vehicles. Every other major car manufacturer has similar initiatives.

If you're wondering why they don't gather teh big datas like Tesla, perhaps it's worth considering that the benefit of this is more of an internet meme than an actual, useful idea. Pretty much everyone serious in the field is using LIDAR, not trying to make up for it with petabytes of bad bumper video.

[mattmaroon]

I don't think the automakers are set in their ways. Chevy acquired Cruise for a billion dollars. Waymo has partnered with Fiat Chrysler. Ford's committed $4 billion over the next few years.

Maybe Tesla's ahead of some of them. (I'm not sure they're ahead of Waymo.) But they've still not learned how to make an affordable car at scale. They're having a hard time getting to a $35k car, and estimates put the lowest Model 3 at $41k to produce. Average American car price, including trucks, is below $34k, and those are being sold at a profit.

And again, all of this is not to say that Tesla won't succeed. They probably will. What they've done is impressive. I just think there's a very good chance that they're on a long, difficult, slow ramp up to being a major car company, in which case their current share price will have been a bad investment.

Edit: also, I left out another huge risk factor: Their CEO. They have a visionary leader who is clearly overextended and shows signs of fraying to the point where he's possibly breaking laws over Twitter.

[dwild]

You bring a good point, they are not only a car maker, they are also the distributor and the gas stations and they are the best in electric vehicle in all 3 categories. They are also starting to become the best in solar electricity and thus may also produce the "fuel" of their cars.

That's not only being the GM of electric vehicle, they are much bigger than that.

I'm pretty sure they are overvalued right now because what they do is for the greater good, but they are also much bigger than what shorter want us to believe.

[helper]

Short sellers don't need the company to fail to make money. I would guess that most tesla short sellers don't think that tesla is going to fail.

Short sellers thesis is that the company is overvalued and that the market will come to see this and correct itself.

If they are wrong they will lose money. If they are right they will make money. There's no reason to ascribe to them malice.

Most CEOs ignore short sellers and get on with their job of running their company.

[rjdagost]

What data does Tesla actually collect? They are very vague on this point, but people act as if a Tesla driving around is collecting the same quality of data as a Google self driving car. On this point I am highly skeptical.