| The banks backing spotify made about as much from their "non IPO" compared to what they would have made from a traditional IPO so I don't think too many bulge bracket banks are worried about this trend. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/spotify-l... > Avoiding the lock-up period was a very important part of our decision to list Spotify directly, but there were also clear financial benefits. This was listed as, I think, a positive but I see it as an extreme negative. Why invest in your company if you don't have the conviction that it will be worth more 3-6 months from now. > Think of it this way: the bigger the first-day gain in the closing price of your newly-issued stock, the higher the “cost” of your IPO. The investors who bought shares before the market opened pocket the gain in the stock price, instead of the company. I think they are right but they really have no proof that they avoided the IPO pop discount. They actually opened trading at $165.90 and closed at $149.01. What's to say that if they followed a traditional IPO the wouldn't have gone public at the same price but had a bank to back stop their share price at that level. The counter argument would be that they might have sold shares lower and had it float at $165.90 but we'll never know:) one other thing they mention but should be highlighted is that most companies that go public sell new shares to the public, ie they raise money. Spotify didn't, as they didn't need money. This is more common these days due to the huge amount of money sloshing around looking for returns > 4% but its still the exception for most companies that go public while still loosing money. |
You are thinking as a potential new investor, and your interests are not aligned with employees and early investors.
Employees and early investors have had what is likely to be a large fraction of their net worth tied up in one company for a long time. They have a clear incentive to take some of that money out and diversify their risk. You, as an outside potential investor, are looking to put a small fraction of your net worth into a hopefully good opportunity.
Yes, you would like to believe that everyone who owns the stock believes in it with their heart and soul, and wants to invest in it forever. And yes, you would like to have the supply of stock limited as long as possible by keeping insiders out of the market. While you're continuing to wish, you'd wish that all employees were happy, and productive, with no desire to ever do anything by slave away creating value.
None of these wishes are reasonable from the point of view of real people who have sacrificed years of their life creating the company that you're looking at.
I think they are right but they really have no proof that they avoided the IPO pop discount. They actually opened trading at $165.90 and closed at $149.01.
You are trivially right that they can't PROVE that they would have had to pay a pop discount the other way, but the odds are that they would have. Typically the pop is 15-30% on the first day. That's a lot of money.