[nostalgeek]

> There other countries where incarceration works, for example Norway [1]

The Nordic model works in Norway because of Norway's society and culture. It wouldn't work in US, or South Africa or El Salvador because of what level of violence is deemed acceptable in those countries.

You can try to transpose the Nordic model in US all you want it is not going to work because these are different societies bound by different civil contracts and cultures.

Plenty of societies and countries have a prison system that doesn't focus on rehabilitation,at all, yet the level of violence is still inferior to US by a long shot.

[arcticbull]

The US prison system is fantastic at one thing: teaching anyone who goes in how to be a criminal. You dehumanize people, pack them in tight, 2-to-a-cell in solitary confinement, and force them to fight each other to survive. They gang up for self defense, fall into negative paths and those follow them outside. They can't get jobs outside because nobody in the US will hire a criminal. Now they have no money, nowhere to live, no support system, no healthcare (because God forbid) and no way to make a living. They didn't learn to survive outside, they commit crimes and they're back in. 75% recidivism [1] seems almost low for such a process doesn't it? At least inside they get food, housing, healthcare and work - talk about socialism.

Which other societies can you point to that don't have prison systems that focus on rehabilitation? Do you have data that shows their recidivism rates are lower?

People don't want to be criminals, they want to live, but they don't all know how.

Clearly the system you advocate is an abject failure at preventing crime, maybe it's time to open yourself up to new processes? It literally can't get much worse.

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is...

[nostalgeek]

> Clearly the system you advocate is an abject failure at preventing crime, maybe it's time to open yourself up to new processes? It literally can't get much worse.

I advocated for nothing, if you read my message I'm not saying one system is better than the other. I'm just saying adopting the nordic model isn't going to work with a society with such a level of violence like the USA.

> People don't want to be criminals, they want to live, but they don't all know how.

Plenty of people want to make money the easiest way possible, and if it involves committing crimes like murdering people they'll do that. You are assuming everybody is like you and follow basic humanism. Well some don't.

[arcticbull]

How do you know the Nordic model won't work if you don't try it? Do you have data to indicate that Nordic model prisons don't work if there's violence? Citation needed or it's not a helpful anecdote. Did you know they're trying it in North Dakota? [1] By making this kind of unsubstantiated claim in support of the system as-is without making any suggestions of your own you're implicitly advocating for the status quo.

And of course some people have severe criminality issues but IMO those should be treated. Even treated as mental health issues.

[1] https://www.motherjones.com/crime-justice/2017/07/north-dako...

[theShowdown55]

Aren't you ignoring low crime countries with brutal criminal justice systems such as Thailand? It is far more likely the culture of a country that predisposes it to higher or lower crime rates (and the types of crimes). For example, the deeper the black community becomes entrenched in the hip hop culture, the more crime they commit. You see a black person from any financial class adopt white culture, you will find that they succeed. The more they adopt hip hop culture, the more they are failures, criminals ETC.

[amarant]

[citation needed] you won't know if it works until you try, has there been any experimental applications of the nordic model in the US that show it to be uneffective? there has been at least one in canada that I'm aware of,(admittedly only targeting youth offenders, so not conclusive, but at least an indication I guess) and the results were pretty good: https://theconversation.com/judges-sentence-youth-offenders-...

edit to add, I'm not sure you can call the Canadian trail a copy of "the nordic system" but it is similar to it in that it focuses on rehab rather than punishment. I like to think you could adapt from "the nordic system" to make it work in the us.

[TangoTrotFox]

This was the point of halfway houses. They were intended to be an alternative, or supplement, to incarceration to help genuinely rehabilitate convicts and help prepare them for release back into general society. They include therapy, drug treatment, job training, and so on. The NYT ran a report [1] on these institutions some time back. Recidivism rates were actually higher than those who just were sent to prison with a 67% recidivism rate for halfway house residents compared to 60% for prison-only convicts.

And of course those rates are just within 3 years. They get much higher over time. The US is relatively unique in that we have a relatively large population of individuals that seem to resist all efforts at stopping them from engaging in crime. This is not really a problem in places like Scandinavia. The absolute and utter failure of rehabilitation driven systems further emphasizes the difference. For further statistics and information on various sorts of data related to prison, prisoners, recidivism, and so on you check out the Bureau of Justice Statistics [2]. Their page is loaded with all the information you could ever want.

---

In my opinion the major problem is once a culture develops around criminality it becomes practically impossible to detach the criminality from the culture, as resisting reform becomes part of the culture. I grew up in this very culture and it's quite clear that people talking about reformation just have not been around this very much at all. Prison is not seen as game over. It's just another part of the game, and prison time is worn as a badge of honor once people are out, as it shows how 'hard' they are, and gains instant respect.

For instance have you ever thought about how completely idiotic resisting arrest is? You're not going to do anything except add years to your sentence, and get either beat down or killed in the process of it. But the reason people do this is again because it shows how 'hard' they are. You or I might be thinking 'Well how can I minimize my prison time and get back to real life?' so we would never behave this way, and then engage in all sorts of mental gymnastics to try to explain why somebody else would. But the issue is that we're not part of this culture, and to understand why things the way they are you really have to live through it. In that culture prison is just a regular part of what we'd call 'real life' so this sort of loss minimization calculus simply does not exist.

The more important question then is where did this culture come from, how did it emerge and spread, and how could that be stopped in the future? But that's an entirely different topic.

[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/nyregion/pennsylvania-stu...

[2] - https://bjs.gov/

[vorpalhex]

> For instance have you ever thought about how completely idiotic resisting arrest is?

If someone grabs your wrist and yanks you off balance - guess what, you're probably going to try to resist them if only to not fall over. Likewise humans are not perfectly rational beings - if someone runs towards you and you're already scared, you're going to start to run. This isn't because you somehow played out a competent mental calculus on your chances of escaping, it's because you're an animal with instincts.

Hell, this effect is counted on in martial arts - if you want someone to move, push them the opposite way.

The issue is that "resisting arrest" has grown to be a vague charge that encapsulates everything from people outright fighting police officers to people who are scared and trying to not get knocked off balance.

[TangoTrotFox]

This is the day and age of cameras on police, cameras on bystanders, cameras on the streets, and cameras pretty much everywhere. Hypotheticals are not only unnecessary but counter productive. You can view practically endless footage at your leisure.

And these hypotheticals are part of the mental gymnastics I mentioned. This isn't to say that your hypotheticals have not happened, but if they do happen they represent an incredibly tiny fraction of all incidents - whereas you are implicitly suggesting they make up some meaningful percent of incidents. It's like somebody charged with breaking and entering who somehow genuinely thought he was getting into his own house after having forgot his keys. I'm sure that's probably happened, but that says absolutely nothing about the very near 100% of cases where this is not what happened.

[spynxic]

> Recidivism rates were actually higher than those who just were sent to prison with a 67% recidivism rate for halfway house residents compared to 60% for prison-only convicts.

In this comparison, the virtue of each institution has been blindly discarded in favor of highlighting the substantial failures of both. That is -- "Because both institutions have failed at achieving their intent, neither institution appears to be capable of achieving a good result."

If we were to include the virtue designated by each approach then it should be clear to see the short term & long term differences between incarceration and rehabilitation.

> And of course those rates are just within 3 years. They get much higher over time.

Albert Einstein is widely credited with saying, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.”

---

In response to the opinion you've stated:

> In my opinion the major problem is once a culture develops around criminality it becomes practically impossible to detach the criminality from the culture, as resisting reform becomes part of the culture.

In response to the assertion you've made:

> Prison is not seen as game over. It's just another part of the game, and prison time is worn as a badge of honor once people are out, as it shows how 'hard' they are, and gains instant respect.

And in response to the questions you've raised:

> The more important question then is where did this culture come from, how did it emerge and spread, and how could that be stopped in the future?

Reformation as an act is a change of system and not a change in culture. Reformation will lead to a favorable cultural shift if and only if the system effectively addresses the needs of the individuals within the culture.

1. Anything less than reformation is utter neglect. 2. Accompanying neglect is malnutrition. 3. Cultures don't develop with criminality as an end all be all. Cultures develop with nutrition as an end all be all.

[abvdasker]

Please be more specific.

> The US is relatively unique in that we have a relatively large population of individuals that seem to resist all efforts at stopping them from engaging in crime.

What "population of individuals" are you talking about?

> This is not really a problem in places like Scandinavia.

Why do you think this isn't a problem in places like Scandinavia? What is different about Scandinavia?

> In my opinion the major problem is once a culture develops around criminality it becomes practically impossible to detach the criminality from the culture, as resisting reform becomes part of the culture.

What is an example of a culture which is attached to criminality?

> But the issue is that we're not part of this culture, and to understand why things the way they are you really have to live through it. In that culture prison is just a regular part of what we'd call 'real life' so this sort of loss minimization calculus simply does not exist.

What culture are you talking about? Which people are part of this culture?

Your comment clearly has a point of view which stated plainly would make it hard to defend. Dog-whistling.

[TangoTrotFox]

You should consider your own prejudices. I've described the culture, and it's not unique to any particular group. A precise example is gangs, though gangs are a subset of all 'actors' who behave in this way. Though even there in the US we have some 1.4 million gang members already. Grow up in this and you see people of all sorts fall into it.

[amarant]

which is precisely why it's so important that them judicial system does everything in it's might to get the out of "it".

currently, the american judicial/penal system seems to have the opposite effect. I dare say a underlying factor has to do with prisons being profit-driven, which is essentially a incentive for them to not rehabilitate inmates (cause then they wouldn't have repeat "customers"!)

you say yourself that it's different in Scandinavia. Why is it so? the culture is different, sure, but not THAT different. We do have criminal gangs here, though to a lesser extent to be sure. how come?

I suggest the reason to be that rehabilitation of criminal works, whereas incarceration does not. There is some data to support this idea, albeit not enough to be conclusive. it would certainly be very interesting to see such trails carried out with american inmates in any scale.

[TangoTrotFox]

Well again halfway houses were designed precisely as an experiment in rehabilitation. It helps resocialize the convicts, helps them get a job, get over an issues (such as drugs) they have, all within the framework of a positive and supportive social network at a shared home. I'm not really sure what people are proposing beyond this. They've carried these experiments out at large scale (and continue to do so - halfway houses are still very much a thing) but they just don't seem to work, at all, in the US.

And so I think what is the difference there is the million dollar question. And the worst part is that it's not even consistent with nations themselves. For instance in checking out some recidivism rate data [1] it turns out that we have things like a recidivism rate of 23% in Oregon while it's 61% in Minnesota. That datum runs also runs in stark contrast to the person who responded while projecting his prejudiced views. Minnesota demographics [2]. Oregon demographics [3]. On the gang issue, to reemphasize I think that's a product of this sort of culture rather than this sort of culture being a product of gangs. So gangs are a subset but not the issue in and of themselves.

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4472929/

[2] https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-many-people-live-in...

[3] https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-many-people-live-in...

[nostalgeek]

> [citation needed]

Norway doesn't have a network of violent gangs sitting in their prisons.

> I'm not sure you can call the Canadian

Canada is mostly on the path to copy US when it comes to gang violence.

[arcticbull]

Canada is not on path to copy the US when it comes to gang violence, unless you have some numbers to back that up. Yes, it's gone up lately, back to levels 10 years ago, while overall criminality and especially gun crimes have gone down. Please find some evidence to compare rate changes between the US and Canada. [1]

You should really look at the numbers. The rape rate in the US is 17X Canada. Murders 3X. And the US age of criminal responsibility is SIX?! [2] It's pretty clear whatever system you advocate for isn't working.

[1] https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/7-charts-that-tell-the-s...

[2] http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Canada/Unit...

[astura]

The "age of criminal responsibility" is extremely misleading. There is no uniform "age of criminal responsibility" in the US, each state is different and each law is different, and the site you posted fully acknowledges that[1]. Prosecutors also have a very heavy amount of leeway in this realm.

[1] DEFINITION: The age at which a person is no longer excluded from criminal liability. The lowest age is indicated for countries where there isn’t a single age limit, for example where different states have different regulations (such as the USA) or there is different limits for boy and girls (such as in Iran). The spectrum is specifically wide for the USA and Mexico (both 6-12 years). Several US states do not stipulate any minimal age for criminal responsibility at all.

[arcticbull]

At no point whatsoever is a 6 year old criminally responsible for anything - and you can tell, because they're 6. This is what a 6 year old look like? [1] This feels apologist - prosecutors should have zero leeway in this matter. States where there isn't one are even worse IMO.

[1] https://www.momjunction.com/articles/gift-ideas-for-6-year-o...

Editing since I can't reply: I may have misread your reply to mine, I reacted because in my mind, that there's a range or discretion is irrelevant because it's so far out there in the first place. Cleaned it up to be less pointed, to better line up with my intent and hopefully yours.

[astura]

Excuse me? Please read the comment you are replying to; I did not say a six year old should be criminally responsible for anything or anything of the sort.

[aqme28]

> Norway doesn't have a network of violent gangs sitting in their prisons.

Is this something that allows them to have a rehabilitative prison system, or something that is caused by having a rehabilitative prison system?

[ams6110]

Its something that is caused by the vast majority of people in the country being white Norwegian citizens. They have very few people (comparatively) who are social outcasts on the basis of being from somewhere else or not speaking the language or being a different color or all three. There is much less need for gangs as an alternative path to acceptance by a group.

[braythwayt]

There are lots and lots of very violent criminal gangs made up of white people from the US who speak English. Many of them are, in fact, white supremacist gangs.

I do not see any evidence that gangs have anything to do with being immigrants. I think gangs have something to do with a culture having an underclass.

[billner]

There's less reason for racist white gangs to form in Norway when the country is largely homogeneous.

[astura]

.... okay but you haven't established why "[having] a network of violent gangs sitting in prisons" causes rehabilitation programs to fail.

I'm not saying your wrong or anything, I don't know, just you don't have a an argument that's even a tiny bit convincing.

You're also getting into "chicken or egg" territory.

[iguy]

For an interesting discussion of this, I recommend this discussion of Glenn Loury with Adaner Usmani.

https://bloggingheads.tv/videos/53070

Usmani believes that something like the Nordic model would work in the US. I don't think Loury is buying any of it (and he knows quite a bit about this topic, quantitatively too) but is a model of polite, serious, engagement.

[gremlinsinc]

Do you think a not-for-profit company could start a prison, modeled after a nordic 'open' prison, as a sort of 'trial' and get support in a state to try it out?

I think the only way to make inroads might be to somewhat circumvent the government. Build something that has a track record of true reform, and maybe eventually hold a monopoly on prisons that actually work and serve the purpose of reform over 'penance'.

[iguy]

This is an interesting thought. If the US is going to contract out its prison-keeping (as it does, and at spectacularly high costs) then it would be great if this could allow for a wide variety of experiments. Charter Prisons, perhaps.

I don't know exactly how you'd organise this, I guess you want to score them by recidivism rates (and high-school diplomas?) with massive penalties for escapes / deaths etc? Unlike charter schools you could assign prisoners truly randomly, statewide, for good statistics.

No doubt there are lessons to be learned from many countries' systems. Maybe we should encourage foreign companies to enter this market. I'm personally dubious that the Nordics have some secret sauce (to adapt Milton Friedman's quip, have you heard about the Swedish-American prison gangs?) but would love to be proven wrong.

[gremlinsinc]

I like the idea of a more-ethical not-for-profit, that is required to spend or lose all money at end of year, and has a CEO cap of say 150x employee average. Could have some sort of investment scheme setup too, that inmates can buy into, and some of the 'left-over' could go into that giving them a little nest egg when they get out to cushion themselves and prevent recidivism.

The 'bonus' could be tied to performance/behavior/etc... and it could be 'will-able'.. in case you're a lifer, or die in prison, your family will have some benefit. A lot of poverty is because the breadwinner is in prison...if the breadwinner could still win bread while in prison it might positively effect poverty quite a bit.

[Kalium]

Without commenting on the rest of your ideas, requiring a not-for-profit to spend all its money each and every fiscal year strikes me as a ideal that feels great but is perhaps impractical. There is already a sizable number of non-profits that devote much of their energy and resources to fundraising, generally at the expense of their core mission. One that has to re-raise its entire operating budget every year is likely to struggle to do anything to advance its core mission.

[realusername]

> It wouldn't work in US, or South Africa or El Salvador because of what level of violence is deemed acceptable in those countries.

The US prison system and the harsh police also contribute to violence, people are more violent because you are violent with them, it works as a feedback loop.

[nostalgeek]

> The US prison system and the harsh police also contribute to violence, people are more violent because you are violent with them, it works as a feedback loop.

chicken and egg problem. I don't think US society was ever "not violent". It isn't more violent today than it was in the 80's at least.

[arcticbull]

Great, so let's call it a day then, no need to try. This is fine.

[TangoTrotFox]

I'm not sure this hypothesis holds up. For instance consider places like Singapore. It is relentlessly brutal against criminals. Even relatively petty crime like vandalism is subject to corporal punishment - caning. Yet there is no feedback loop - the country has practically no crime, and I think this is in large part thanks to the people and culture of the area.

Or consider Japan. They have a 99% conviction rate, and a big part of that is because it's an open secret that police will torture confessions out of people they arrest. But once again a different people with a different culture and we see an incredibly low crime rate.

For this matter we can perhaps even look at the US! Violent crime rates have been plummeting since the early 90s even though that has been paired with a sharp increase in the public perception of police violence. If there was a feedback loop then we would expect it to have been going sharply in the other direction!

[vkou]

Police in Japan deliberately ignore many crimes, to make the numbers look good.

Also, torturing people into confessions is a great idea, until you nab the wrong person. But it sure drives the conviction statistics up!

This isn't a question of culture, this is simply a case of the police fudging the numbers to make themselves look good. The Soviet Union also had "zero crime", and a 99% conviction rate, but unlike Japan, nobody took those bullshit claims seriously.

[iguy]

The 99% obviously means that (at best!) that they don't bring cases they may lose to trial, and isn't really an achievement.

But GGP realusername's claim was that brutal policing drives crime. Places which have brutal policing and genuinely low crime are some evidence against this, even if you don't wish to emulate the brutality.

(Whether the USSR had low levels of street crime I actually don't know -- is this known? But few deny that Japan and Singapore are pretty damn safe.)

[TangoTrotFox]

I was not stating it was a good thing. It means that Japan is treating people they suspect of crimes absolutely awfully. The hypothesis I was responding to is that harsh treatment of suspects is reciprocated with harsh treatment towards police from future suspects. I'm not sure this is substantiated.

[arcticbull]

So does China! 99.93% conviction rate last year. That's 3 nines! Stellar, those police get it right basically all the time! [1] Hong Kong OTOH is between 53.9% and 79% [2]. Sad.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/03/1...

[2] http://www.hk-lawyer.org/content/conviction-rates

[zumu]

> You can try to transpose the Nordic model in US all you want it is not going to work because these are different societies bound by different civil contracts and cultures.

The point isn't we should perfectly copy the "Nordic model" -- the point is criminals in the US would be better rehabilitated if we tried to rehabilitate them.