Not yet. Costs haven't fallen. The epoch-defining change would be back-to-back commercial launches with the same booster in a short period of time with zero or little retrofitting.
I disagree. I highly doubt reusing a booster has been more expensive to SpaceX than building new boosters. It is also speculated that at least the first few customers of reused boosters were given a discount.
If you are saying customer cost has not fallen, you may be correct. I would counter with the fact that SpaceX is already a low cost provider, lowering their price more may not increase their overall profits.
> The epoch-defining change would be back-to-back commercial launches with the same booster in a short period of time with zero or little retrofitting.
The booster SpaceX plans to reuse today is a "block 5" booster. This is basically the design that SpaceX hopes will enable that zero or little retrofitting reuse.
> I highly doubt reusing a booster has been more expensive to SpaceX than building new boosters
Well, they are. Which is natural, because the program is still R&D more than mass production.
> This is basically the design that SpaceX hopes will enable that zero or little retrofitting reuse
When that rapid re-use is demonstrated, it will mark the epoch. We could retcon to the original re-use, or even booster recovery. But that's premature.
(I'm still super excited about everything SpaceX does.)
Costs have already fallen. Iridium paid far less to launch their next generation fleet despite it being the same number of satellites, each of which are individually quite heavier than the previous generation (meaning, they purchased much greater launch capability but at a strictly lower cost). And several customers have taken advantage of the extreme low costs of reused launchers. Sure, right now it's only maybe $10 million cheaper, but $10 million is still $10 million, and for some that makes the difference between feasibility and infeasability.
If this current revival of spacecraft innovation goes on to create rapid, fully reusable spacecraft(BFR, New Glen, etc.), I think the epoch changing moment will be seen as the first landing of the first stage Falcon 9 on December 21, 2015. Similar to the first flight at Kitty Hawk. But if we fail to take to the stars, it will soon be forgotten and only remembered as a nostalgic touchstone for a few dreamers. Sort of like how I imagine how people will think of the first moon landing if, in a thousand years, humans have still not made it back.
I disagree. I highly doubt reusing a booster has been more expensive to SpaceX than building new boosters. It is also speculated that at least the first few customers of reused boosters were given a discount.
If you are saying customer cost has not fallen, you may be correct. I would counter with the fact that SpaceX is already a low cost provider, lowering their price more may not increase their overall profits.
> The epoch-defining change would be back-to-back commercial launches with the same booster in a short period of time with zero or little retrofitting.
The booster SpaceX plans to reuse today is a "block 5" booster. This is basically the design that SpaceX hopes will enable that zero or little retrofitting reuse.