[bumholio]

If the technology becomes commoditized, the cost reduction would be massive. A $30000 vehicle can drive 200K miles for the price of fuel and occasional cleaning. That's in the 30 - 50 cent/mile area, almost a full order of magnitude. Insurance premiums will depend on how safe they are - so they will be very low if self driving cars are to be allowed in any way on the road.

[vonmoltke]

> A $30000 vehicle can drive 200K miles for the price of fuel and occasional cleaning.

That is significantly underestimating the operating costs of a vehicle, especially a vehicle that is used heavily. There is a lot of periodic maintenance required, and the frequency increases as usage gets more stressful. Then there is non-periodic maintenance, be it from accidents, vandalism, or just flawed parts.

It's true that most of these costs come in even if you own, but putting 200k miles on a car over eight years costs less (both per-mile and per-unit-time) than putting 200k on in two years.

[bumholio]

> putting 200k miles on a car over eight years costs less (both per-mile and per-unit-time) than putting 200k on in two years

The per mile part sounds like a personal speculation. (Per unit of time is obvious and irrelevant here)

Quite the contrary, it's most efficient to put the load in a short span to minimize time-limited consumables like belts and seals, fixed costs like insurance and regulatory charges per vehicle, interest, depreciation of things like paint and esthetic appeal etc. The battery has an age induced wear also, the tech is moving fast and more efficient vehicles are always appearing and so on.

[ghaff]

The IRS allows a 50 something cents per mile business expense deduction. And if you run some numbers that’s a pretty good ballpark for the cost of operating a car.

[pastage]

Considering they think Waymo might get prices down to 65-95 cents per mile with fully matured tech that seems like good number.

[bumholio]

Considering that's more than a cab costs in some European countries, driver included, I would say we aren't talking about commodity tech, but a highly profitable initial phase.

[mcguire]

"A $30000 vehicle can drive 200K miles for the price of fuel and occasional cleaning."

Modern vehicles are incredibly more reliable than they used to be, but this seems to be overstating the case.