[Sean1708]

In case anyone was interested here is a table of how likely the model thought each team was to make it through any particular stage[0] along with the stage that that team went out in and the probability that the model gave for that particular outcome (i.e. [probability of making it through the final stage they made it through] - [probability of making it through the stage they went out in]).

                Groups  Round_16  Quarters  Semis  Finals    Out_In  Probability
        Brazil   87.5%     60.8%     42.0%  27.9%   18.5%  Quarters        18.8%
        France   81.4%     58.4%     36.6%  19.9%   11.3%       Won        11.3%
       Germany   80.5%     49.5%     30.5%  18.8%   10.7%    Groups        19.5%
      Portugal   75.2%     52.8%     32.2%  17.3%    9.4%  Round_16        22.4%
       Belgium   78.5%     51.1%     27.7%  15.8%    8.2%     Semis        11.9%
         Spain   72.3%     50.1%     28.8%  15.4%    7.8%  Round_16        22.2%
       England   73.1%     46.6%     24.4%  13.4%    6.5%     Semis        11.0%
     Argentina   79.7%     44.2%     24.1%  11.8%    5.7%  Round_16        35.5%
      Colombia   74.9%     37.3%     17.0%   8.5%    3.7%  Round_16        37.6%
       Uruguay   74.4%     34.6%     17.2%   7.2%    3.2%  Quarters        17.4%
        Poland   68.5%     30.5%     12.8%   5.8%    2.3%    Groups        31.5%
       Denmark   47.8%     26.3%     12.4%   5.2%    2.0%  Round_16        21.5%
        Mexico   52.0%     23.2%     10.5%   4.9%    1.9%  Round_16        28.8%
        Sweden   45.9%     19.4%      8.3%   3.7%    1.3%  Quarters        11.1%
          Iran   35.4%     18.1%      7.2%   2.6%    0.8%    Groups        64.6%
          Peru   37.3%     17.2%      6.8%   2.5%    0.8%    Groups        62.7%
     Australia   33.5%     15.4%      6.3%   2.3%    0.7%    Groups        66.5%
        Russia   47.9%     16.3%      6.0%   2.0%    0.7%  Quarters        10.3%
       Croatia   49.8%     16.9%      6.3%   2.1%    0.6%    Finals         4.2%
   Switzerland   52.8%     15.9%      6.1%   2.0%    0.6%  Round_16        36.9%
       Iceland   45.2%     15.1%      5.6%   1.8%    0.5%    Groups        54.8%
    Costa_Rica   36.8%     13.3%      4.7%   1.6%    0.5%    Groups        63.2%
        Serbia   32.9%     12.1%      4.5%   1.5%    0.5%    Groups        67.1%
         Japan   36.5%     12.8%      3.8%   1.3%    0.4%  Round_16        23.7%
  Saudi_Arabia   43.4%     12.7%      4.2%   1.3%    0.4%    Groups        56.6%
       Tunisia   35.2%     13.3%      4.1%   1.3%    0.4%    Groups        64.8%
         Egypt   34.4%      8.7%      2.5%   0.7%    0.2%    Groups        65.6%
   South_Korea   21.6%      5.9%      7.1%   0.5%    0.2%    Groups        78.4%
       Morocco   17.1%      6.8%      1.8%   0.5%    0.1%    Groups        82.9%
       Nigeria   25.2%      6.5%      1.7%   0.4%    0.0%    Groups        74.8%
       Senegal   20.1%      4.9%      1.2%   0.3%    0.0%    Groups        79.9%
        Panama   13.2%      3.3%      0.5%   0.1%    0.0%    Groups        86.8%

[0]: Exhibit 2 in http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/world-cup-201...

Edit: Fix copy-paste errors and atrocious maths.

[ernesth]

Japan went out in Round_16

Croatia went out in Finals

And I do not understand what the last column means (except for France and teams out in group phase)

[Sean1708]

Urgh, I hate that you can't edit HN comments.

First two were just me making a mistake because I write that in manually.

That last column makes no sense. It was supposed to be the probability that the model gave to the outcome that occurred, but I got the maths wrong.

[sctb]

There's an edit window of a couple hours, which has probably just past. We've opened it up again so you can go ahead and edit.

[Sean1708]

Brilliant, thank you very much. Although it might be a tad late now.

[ernesth]

Great work :)

So all in all, the only teams for which the prediction was more than 1/2 were teams out in groups. That is a little underwhelming.

Ah, for Croatia, I believe, it should read 1.5%.