[ghaff]

I'm not sure why anyone would say the "dream" is dying. If anything is dying, it's unrealistic hopes that fully autonomous vehicles will be widespread and dirt cheap to be driven around in by the end of this decade.

I suspect the hype's been fueled by--in addition to the usual suspects--the growth of young professionals in urban areas who have this vision of never having to own a car and being driven around everywhere. For that to be a reality, self-driving has to happen right now--not incrementally over the coming decades.

[marcosdumay]

> For that to be a reality...

Those on demand trip services (Uber, Lyft, etc) are already cheaper than owning a car. What you describe already exists.

[nradov]

Ride hailing services are only cheaper in a few dense urban areas where most trips are short and parking is very expensive. Everywhere else they're still an expensive luxury.

[nojvek]

Yep. I pay an insane amount of money to Lyft for rides to home because I live away from city and we only have one car.

Could have gotten a second car but I hate driving in peak hour traffic so I take the bus. Lyft is definitely convenient after hours since my last bus is at 6pm. The convinience comes at a steep price though.

[jexah]

I don't know man, I would pay $500 a week in Uber if I used it to travel to and from work, let alone anywhere else.

[toomuchtodo]

> Those on demand trip services (Uber, Lyft, etc) are already cheaper than owning a car.

Only until the VC dollars dry up.

[XalvinX]

or the drivers form unions, maybe?

[gremlinsinc]

Really? For a family of 4 or 5? Does lift even have car seats for children? We still need a minivan, and we pay 300 a month + gas when our car isn't paid for (which it is). We generally use used cars that are a decade old to save money.

How is uber cheaper?

[mmt]

> For a family of 4 or 5?

Presumably for the "young, urban professionals" the GP referred to, which I'd expect are, at most, a family of 2 (in the GP commenter's eyes).

Even given this assumption, even that may be debatable, since it assumes the Uber/Lyft model is sustainable without self-driving cars.

[gremlinsinc]

I've got a wife, kid and one on the way, and even just us 3, I think uber/lyft wouldn't work. Why do a lot of people on HN assume everyone is single(and always will be), or a family <= 2.. That's a huge fallacy of thinking.

I can't wait for self-driving tech, I'll probably buy it when it hits used car lots, though. I'm hoping by 2030 it'll be real. I don't think uber/lyft can sustain more than 4-5 more years on investors alone, without charging a LOT more for rides if they're going to continue using real drivers.

The real disruption will be when car companies instead of selling cars, simply sell memberships to a car sharing plan... pay $200/family member/month to Ford, get unlimited self-driving wherever anyone in the family is going. No need for insurance/etc... gas included.

[mmt]

> Why do a lot of people on HN assume everyone is single

That's an easy one.. for the same reason they assume everyone is a young, urban, technical professional living in a major tech hub.

I recall this being a source of criticism (though admittedly not recently) about the problems startups are solving being skewed toward the problems the above people (the same ones doing the solving) tend to have.

> (and always will be)

I'm not sure that's quite true, at least not in the sense that of individuals.

However, they may assume it of the population within a certain location, such as that urban tech hub in which they live, if the individuals who do form >=3 families move away to the suburbs, and are replaced by single individuals. This seems to happen in US cities.

> when car companies instead of selling cars, simply sell memberships to a car sharing plan

What's their incentive? Car-share already exists for non-self-driving cars, but through third parties. It's quite expensive.

> get unlimited self-driving

That seems a particularly unattractive option for the provide, as well as being political dynamite.

[gremlinsinc]

I know for one, Tesla has made it so you can't use tesla for rideshare, because you have to use their (forthcoming) service, IIRC, I remember reading that somewhere, I also believe some of the manufacturers of self-driving tech have partnered with lyft or uber to possibly be the software behind their own rideshare.

The future of cars, makes sense not to own... A car just dropped johnny (a kid I have no relation to) off at school a mile from my house 5 minutes before I need to be to work, this car then becomes mine till I get to work, from there it takes someone else to a brunch meeting... and so forth.

Using logistics it can free up roads by sending the closest available car to pick people up, and possibly re-arranging traffic patterns via networking to make roads clearer...etc.

Edit: one more attractive thing for car companies: Subscriptions. Someone paying 800 for life, is MUCH better than someone paying 20k once. They can know with better certainty their monthly recurring revenue when charting growth/etc..

[ghaff]

Seems more likely to be a membership in the 50 cents to $1 per mile range which is what it currently costs to operate a car (including for any deadheading). Not sure why anyone would offer for a fixed fee unless it was for a very high number.

[mmt]

I suspect the assumption is that this cost will go down if insurance/liability (i.e. injury and property damage) costs are drastically reduced by self-driving cars and fuel and maintenance costs are also reduced by all-electric drivetrains.

Still, $200 seems far-fetched in light of the average American 1200 miles monthly. At under $.17/mi (not counting deadheading), that might not even cover depreciation/capital cost.

[ghaff]

It depends on where you live and your lifestyle. They certainly wouldn't be for me. And there are many situations where I have to drive myself, even if it's a rental car.

[King-Aaron]

I don't know if it's cheaper in urban USA than here in Western Australia... But I find taking Uber every morning and afternoon works out to be substantially (i.e. prohibitively) more expensive for me than driving the car in to the office.