[spenrose]

"Is nuclear power going to help the United States decarbonize its energy supply and fight climate change?

Probably not.

That is the conclusion of a remarkable new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in early July — remarkable because it is not written by opponents of nuclear power, as one might expect given the conclusion. The authors are in fact extremely supportive of nuclear and view its loss as a matter of “profound concern”"

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/7/11/1755564...

[DennisP]

But it's worth noting that the study focused on the U.S., and much of the problem with advanced nuclear in the U.S. comes from the NRC's blinkered approach to regulating new designs.

A couple years ago I got to sit in a meeting between a former head of the NRC, and representatives from over a dozen advanced reactor startups. The main complaint of the startup people was that the NRC requires them to spend several hundred million dollars on a detailed design before the NRC will even look at their proposal. Then the NRC gives a straight yes or no. If "no" then the project is over; if "yes" then they still have nothing but a paper reactor.

It's a very difficult environment for investors. The startups said just going with a more phased approach would be a huge help.

By contrast, Canada has regulators much more friendly to new technology, without compromising safety. Terrestrial Energy, a molten salt reactor startup in Canada, has spoken highly of their regulators, and thinks they can have reactors on the grid by the mid-2020s.

[spenrose]

Like most climate hawks, I am a passionate proponent of maintaining existing nuclear and one who hopes that new nuclear will reach the market. But the operative words in your post are "thinks" and "mid-2020s". Every ton of CO2 we put out now warms the earth now and for centuries. Please read this [1] and see that renewables plus storage are doing now what you hope nuclear will do years from now.

[1] https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/7/13/1755187...

[DennisP]

I completely agree that we should keep rolling out renewables as fast as we can.

But we should also fix the unnecessarily difficult regulatory environment for advanced nuclear, because so far, we don't have a single example of a country running almost entirely on wind/solar/storage, and current storage technology isn't scalable or cheap enough to get large populations through windless nights.

You can say that we'll get there, but that's no less speculative than Terrestrial Energy saying when their reactors will be ready.

[spenrose]

"[1] we should keep rolling out renewables as fast as we can. But [2] we should also fix the unnecessarily difficult regulatory environment for advanced nuclear"

[1]: sit on hands and watch existing markets follow their current trajectories. Odds of success: excellent. [2]: make a major change in the existing political economy of energy, beating all the entrenched interests who will oppose it. Odds of success: ___________.

[toomuchtodo]

Costa Rica, Iceland, and Uruguay run almost entirely on renewables. Other countries are catching up quickly.

[DennisP]

I said wind and solar, not "renewables." Countries with large hydro and geothermal resources can easily run on those, because they're always available.

We really need two different words: one for hydro/geothermal which are steady supplies but geographically limited, and another for wind/solar, which can be installed anywhere but are unpredictable and require massive storage or fossil/nuclear backup. The use of the same word for both has been a constant source of misleading rhetoric.

[3rdAccount]

Iceland is a tiny country with lots of geothermal energy. Comparing that directly to the US, makes zero sense.

[toomuchtodo]

Most of the grid will be hydro, solar, wind, and utility scale battery storage before Terrestrial Enegry has their first reactor operational.

[korantu]

What are your thoughts on mofular factory-produced reactors like NuScale [1] ? They use proven tecnology, and walkaway safe.

[1] https://www.nuscalepower.com

[toomuchtodo]

I think they’re an excellent solution where renewables aren’t feasible (the arctic circle, for example).

[DennisP]

I don't think we'll make that much progress by 2025, though I'd love to be wrong about that.

[toomuchtodo]

Countries are meeting their renewables targets years ahead of schedule, and the cost of wind, solar, and batteries will continue to decline. I don’t see any way we’re still using fossil fuels for electricity by 2030. It’s not optimism, just curve fitting.

[hueving]

Except batteries aren't even close to where they need to be in costs to cover windless nights.

[toomuchtodo]

They will be in the next 5 years.

[tjoff]

You don't answer the parent.

Parent: "[...] but if LFTRs can provide a better and safer nuclear? Then it's about time environmentalists started pulling their heads from their asses and reconsider nuclear before we irreversibly fuck up our entire planet and ecosystem."

Your article: Nuclear isn't economically/politically likely.

Well, if the safest and greenest form of electricity was also the cheapest and most politically friendly alternative then we wouldn't be having this discussion.

If the environment was prioritized enough then neither would pose any obstacle, what remains is the debate of whether nuclear really is the greenest and safest form of energy.

[spenrose]

I linked to a write-up of peer-reviewed research which focused on the "if" and demonstrated that the odds are daunting. That ... is an answer. I linked to a second article showing that renewables are reducing emissions from natural gas today. "If the environment was prioritized enough" then either would work. Renewables are making headway given the current political economy of energy, nuclear is not. And to repeat: I wish it were!

[tjoff]

Odds are daunting that it is a green and safe source of energy?

[spenrose]

That new nuclear will be deployed at scale in the next two decades that wind and solar are being deployed at now.