Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by DennisP 2903 days ago
I don't think we'll make that much progress by 2025, though I'd love to be wrong about that.
1 comments

Countries are meeting their renewables targets years ahead of schedule, and the cost of wind, solar, and batteries will continue to decline. I don’t see any way we’re still using fossil fuels for electricity by 2030. It’s not optimism, just curve fitting.
Except batteries aren't even close to where they need to be in costs to cover windless nights.
They will be in the next 5 years.
Maybe. And maybe Terrestrial Energy really will deliver a molten salt reactor delivering nuclear at 3 cents/kWh in 2025.

Renewables advocates have a bad habit of comparing the renewables of the future to the nuclear of the past.

Nuclear advocates have a bad habit of never delivering on time and/or without massive cost overruns. Renewables (solar and wind) are already below 2 cents/kwh at utility scale. They, theoretically, should be considerably cheaper in 5 years (and so, nuclear must target 1 cent/kwh to be profitable).
Solar/wind with enough storage to be reliable without fossil backup is nowhere near that cheap.