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by logicallee 2936 days ago
>Speed is one of the most underemphasized traits of a great VC for founders.

Definitely. Well that, and writing checks.

If you're printing money, live in the United States, and have an IQ of 120 (a bit over 1 std deviation above mean) from a high-tech startup, it should take less than an hour to raise $100,000 seed round on standard terms. Okay, call it a week, even a few weeks or months.

Instead, for 90% of founders who match that description, 1 year of full-time work trying to raise the mentioned seed round would not be sufficient to do so (about 2,000 hours of work). In fact "impossible" may be a good description of the possibility for them to do so.

Without reference to sources, take a guess: how many first financings for startups will have happened in 2018? Let's work through this together, I'll give you some data, you can use it to work on your guess, then I'll reveal the answer.

A good place to start your thinking is that if we take a single academic cohort, say, people graduating college this year, there will be about 2.03 million bachelor's degrees conferred[1]. If we then look at every single year (you can try to raise money any year from when you're 18 to 80), and if we add people who dropped out without an undergraduate degree -- this is true for Bill Gates and Steve Jobs for example -- we might expect, say, around 200,000 seed-stage financings nationally at the very, very lowest-end. On the high end, I'd be pretty shocked if there were 2 million, since that would be 1 out of every 162 people living in the United States receiving seed funding this year (or 0.6%) and not that many people are starting companies every year. As mentioned, that's the number of undergraduates graduating annually. Some more data for you: the number of businesses in the United States less than a year old is around 650,000[2].

Okay, ready? Here is the actual number of startup first financings that will have occurred in 2018: 1,750 [3]

That is less than half of the number of undergraduates who are just right now enrolled at just MIT. [4] Would you fund one of them who just started printing money? How about someone who graduated from there (or dropped out) 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 years ago? Or from Stanford? Or Harvard? Or UC Berkeley? Or indeed anywhere else where they learned to program and start printing money.

If you're a VC the answer is "No, you wouldn't".

Do these numbers make sense to you?

At the moment I can't raise < $150K with paper millionaire cofounders. I can't get a term sheet even at an 80% discount (discount I offered on a safe note). (Okay a VC offered me <$20K for effectively 51% on non-standard terms.).

But I shouldn't be doing that - trying to raise money, I mean. I should be selling cereal: because Airbnb, a technical company that was renting apartments over the Internet, found it easier to sell cereal profitably on national television than to get first financing.[5]

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[1] https://www.quora.com/How-many-students-graduate-college-in-...

[2] https://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.ht...

[3] https://imgur.com/a/HZIIY0h (I just counted pixels, the precision is shown by comparing 2007). Reuploaded from: https://www.economist.com/business/2018/06/02/american-tech-...

[4] http://web.mit.edu/facts/faqs.html

[5] http://www.businessinsider.com/how-a-box-of-cereal-and-being...

2 comments

Most people who raise seed rounds aren't "printing money", and quite a few people who are "printing money" are printing the wrong kind of money to raise venture funding on.
>and quite a few people who are "printing money" are printing the wrong kind of money to raise venture funding on.

Only if you agree with the premise that "Venture Capitalists Get Paid Well to Lose Money".[1]

(I don't agree with that conclusion, I just think they're not writing enough checks for their own purposes.)

In that case the right kind of company in 2018 is an AI social media machine learning cloud platform startup, and there's a whole lot fewer than 1000 of those total worldwide due to the simple fact -- and I think you can see the end of this sentence coming -- that I just spouted gibberish.

More seriously, when Airbnb was founded ten years ago it wasn't the right company either, and the only pivot it made is from being a "rent out your apartment to tourists over the Internet" company 9 years ago to a "rent out your apartment to tourists over the Internet" company with 4 million lodging listings in 65,000 cities and 191 countries which has facilitated over 260 million bookings and as of a year ago, closed a $1 billion round at a $31 billion after becoming profitable in 2016.[2] The founders did this by selling cereal.

[1] https://hbr.org/2014/08/venture-capitalists-get-paid-well-to...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbnb-funding-idUSKBN16G...

[3] https://imgur.com/a/X6Ncr5E (Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20090601000000*/www.airbnb.com )

No, sorry, you're right that venture capital as an asset class underperforms most other investments, but that doesn't mean that every company that is "printing money" should receive investment. The mathematics of venture investing only work for a subset of businesses.

My company has a Y2 ARR(!) and revenue target that I think would make a lot of YC companies pretty happy, but we are not a sensible investment for venture capitalists.

Actually you're an extremely sensible investment. :)

If you could close it in an hour how much money would you raise on standard terms and at what valuation? (You can list both as a multiple of any metric you pick - any metric, including unjustified projections if you want - if you don't want to name figures here.) Obviously given what I just shared I'm not a VC.

No, we're a nonsensical investment: there is no story we can tell about how our equity becomes liquid in 10 years, and our growth, while very pleasant for us principals, is unlikely to lead us to a place where our eventual liquidity would pay for the failures of the other 9 companies in a portfolio that included us.

It's not a moral debate. The portfolio math has to work, and things have to work on a timescale that works for fund LPs. At the end of the day, venture capitalists are simply an adapter cable that plugs small chunks of LP endowments and funds into baskets of companies with an N% chance of exiting >7x within Y years. If your company can't do that, the adapter cable doesn't fit your company.

You seem to be mostly right. In the past, VCs funded crazy moonshots and local banks funded sensible old-school companies with 10% per year growth and 15% profit/revenue ratios.

Small community banks don't really exist anymore, and large banks don't really seem to be funding anything under $10 million nowadays, except mortgages.

> We're a nonsensical investment

for a standard VC, sure. Maybe there's a venture investment philosophy for non-unicorns. [0]

[0] https://sparktoro.com/blog/raised-a-very-unusual-round-of-fu...

Respectfully, I think this is a rather muddy estimation of probabilities and returns, as I can illustrate like this:

Suppose I had $100 million to spend on literal lottery tickets and my goal was to average a 10% per year return on it across all of my "investments". Mainly I try to find places that haven't paid out a large jackpot yet receive low media coverage, so that I have a positive expected return: then I buy a whole lot of lottery tickets there without alerting my competitors to the fact that the lottery tickets have a positive expected value due to the accumulated jackpot, that people seem unaware of.

Now: if my bank where I'm keeping the $100 million, which is stable and conservative, gives me an offer to purchase a 1-year bond from them that pays 12% should I take it? Will it help me achieve my goal of netting 10% returns?

You may think, "No - because that 12% is not going to pay for the non-winning lottery tickets."

But this is muddy thinking because the 12% is not in the same basket of risks as the lottery ticket purchases. It is simply incorrect thinking to group them together.

So yes, tying some of the money up for a year in a bond that pays 12% will help me make my goal of earning a 10% return, even if my strategy is to earn 10% by buying jackpots.

Of course I can be stupid and blow the $100 million on nationally announced huge jackpots where everyone else knows about it and all my competitors are also buying tickets, so that the expected value of the tickets is actually less than I pay for them. That's before the loss that I take on all the logistics, my office, etc. This is kind of what VC's do. They lose money.

You can characterize it descriptively, but please don't call it a sensible strategy.

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I'm still curious about your answer to how much money you would raise (perhaps expressed as a multiple of something) and at what valuation (again as a multiple of something, even projections if you want), if you could close it in an hour no questions asked. Just to throw this out there, I wouldn't raise $100 million at a $1 billion valuation for example, since I don't have any good use for $100 million. How much would you raise if you could, and at what valuation?

Forget the VC's, they're not in this conversation. We've already established they're in it to live on someone else's dime and lose money ;)

I recently saw your other post about raising funding for a hardware startup. Have you tried another attempt at crowdfunding (if your first one failed to reach the target)? csallen's indiehackers group may have more suggestions.