[tvural]

Financial projections will undervalue Tesla because they are very different from other car companies - they are a monopoly with gigantic barriers to entry on many fronts. Other carmakers could copy some features of Tesla's cars, but they can't easily copy the multi-billion-dollar factories that make other features possible. They have better engineers than other car companies and a culture that works them harder. They avoided the dealership system and built their own stores. Elon Musk's PR stunts and Twitter feed are a much more effective method of advertising than the TV and Internet ads other car companies use.

[wastedhours]

> very different > gigantic barriers to entry

What are those? I'm fond of Tesla, but they don't have an insurmountable moat around their technology. There's nothing intrinsically novel about their approach (especially outside the US where direct to consumer is a common model), they just had the benefit of a clean slate to build it out, rather than incrementally changing systems, platforms and procedures like other car manufacturers.

The halo of an eccentric billionaire genius wears off pretty quickly if they can't continue to compete on price, design, safety, and other areas of public perception.

It remains to be seen if Tesla engineers are objectively "better" than those at other car manufacturers, because very few directly compete at present. The number of "ground up" electric cars is quite small, compared with ones hamstrung by retrofitting electric powertrains into existing platforms.

> Elon Musk's PR stunts and Twitter feed are a much more effective method of advertising than the TV and Internet ads other car companies use.

Elon Musk's PR stunts and Twitter feed are a much more effective method of advertising to the ahead-of-the-curve, switched on audience who're interested in Tesla's current offering than the TV and Internet ads other car companies use. Again, there's nothing yet showing you can extrapolate this out once other manufacturers are truly competing in the same space.

I think they're great, and I want one - but we do need to be a little pragmatic about their position in the industry.

[nvarsj]

> They have better engineers than other car companies

Huh... Quality of Teslas by most accounts is terrible. Not to mention the recent scandals over autopilot safety. Not sure where you got that idea.

[metabagel]

All launches of a completely new automobile by any automaker will tend to have quality problems. It’s unclear whether Tesla’s quality issues are significantly different from those experienced by more established automakers.

[discreteevent]

Ok, but that doesn't really demonstrate that Tesla have better engineers.

[0xFFC]

I have never been in any Teslas car. But I am so curious about this:

>Quality of Teslas by most accounts is terrible

Can you elaborate a little bit about this?

[nvarsj]

Peruse Tesla owner forums and reddit. The model 3 in particular has quality issues on brand new cars. Compare it to buying a Honda or Toyota - you're not going to have the kinds of problems described.

[sowbug]

I did what you asked. I stopped after a few minutes.

http://www.odyclub.com/forums/54-2011-2017-odyssey/197033-bo...

https://www.civicx.com/threads/any-issues-so-far-fit-finish-...

https://www.tacomaworld.com/threads/misaligned-rear-bumper.5...

[NickM]

Well of course you're going to see people post about issues they're having if you look on forums. Nobody goes out of their way to look on forums and make posts sharing their frustration over the lack of problems they have with their car.

[nvarsj]

I've been on Honda and Toyota forums in the past, and there was nothing like "my car panels are misaligned fresh out of the factory".

[NickM]

Come on, I'm trying to be scientific about this and you're just going to swing in with a rude, ad hominem argument about "Tesla fanboys"? Claiming that Tesla having bad QC is "common knowledge" doesn't somehow insulate you and your friends from stuff like confirmation bias.

And to address your other point, if you search the web for panel alignment issues on Honda or Toyota cars there seem to be plenty of those out there as well.

[emptyfile]

https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+quality+control+issues...

[alphydan]

Googling "toyota quality control issues" returns news about a recall of 1.75 million cars. So it seems the "reliable" brands have the same problems. Unless we can quantify it better, it's hard to compare.

[george_morgan]

JD Power typically produce rankings of faults per 100 vehicles, which seems to be the best metric: http://www.jdpower.com/press-releases/jd-power-2018-us-vehic...

Unfortunately Tesla aren't part of this study.

[octorian]

Except when Toyota does a recall, its just a note in the mail and a little extra work at your next service appointment.

When Tesla does a recall, its a major headline news story and fodder for many forum trolls to use in their rants against the company. (plus, a notice and a little extra work at your next service appointment)

[blauditore]

> Elon Musk's PR stunts and Twitter feed are a much more effective method of advertising than the TV and Internet ads other car companies use.

I think there's a bias here. This kind of PR resonates more with "techie" people (as found on HN) than with the rest. For some groups of people, TV ads are probably much more effective.

[zaat]

Musk's tweet from 9:00 is the 10:00 news headlines. News headlines are (probably) more effective than ads.

[simias]

In the USA that might be but abroad I don't think it'll be enough. I doubt Musk's tweets make (regularly) the headlines in Germany, Japan or China.

[kwhitefoot]

Not even in Norway where we have more Teslas per head than anywhere else.

[kgwgk]

> they are a monopoly with gigantic barriers to entry

A monopoly on what, precisely?