[oldandtired]

It is not about true or false hypotheses generation. It is about likely and false hypotheses.

When we start to treat the hypotheses as "true" instead of "likely", we fall into a trap of not being able to reconsider the past evidence in the light of new evidence. We hold onto the "truths" of previous hypotheses instead of taking a fresh look.

An example of this is the current model used for astrophysics, where the basic "truth" that is the consensus of the majority working in the area is that "gravity" is the only significant force operating at distances above macroscopic. I use "gravity" because there is much debate in various areas as to what this force actually is.

There is evidence that our explanations are either incomplete or wrong. Yet this fundamental "truth" is unquestioned in the majority and where it is questioned, those questioners become personae non gratae.

It happens in the climate change debate. Here the "truth" is that the causes are anthropomorphic. So if you question that "truth", you are persona non grata. Yet, the subject is so complex that we do know to what extent, if much at all, human activity changes the climate over long periods of time. To question the "truth" of essential anthropomorphic causes to climate change means that detailed investigations into the actual causes do not get undertaken if they do not support the "truth" hypothesis.

In real life, scientists are people with the same range of foibles and fallibilities as everyone else. Just because one is "smart" doesn't mean one is clear-headed and logical. Just because the "scientific consensus" is for one model or another doesn't make that "scientific consensus" any more true than an alternative model that explains what we see.

We need to stop getting uptight about our favourite models and those who dispute them. We need to be able to take fresh looks at the data and see if there are alternatives that may provide a better working model. We also need to get away from considering successful models as "truth" and more as the "current successful working" models.

[BlackFly]

Having worked quite closely with cosmologists I can tell you that you have the wrong impression. Cosmologists perform maximum likelihood parameter estimations of models. Often included in these models are parameters that control deviations from general relativity or parameters that completely switch from GR to another form of gravity. The fundamental truth that there is dark matter is the fundamental fact that GR + visible matter alone is a terrible fit, GR + visible matter + invisible matter is an amazing fit and all other models tried so far are also bad fits if multiple distinct experiments are compared. They continue to try to replace the invisible matter term with terms from first principles all the time. However, often someone comes along and fits a model to a single dataset and proclaims loudly that they have solved the dark matter or dark energy problem. However, there are many distinct datasets which also need to be modeled, and invariably when this is performed the model was seen to be a worse fit than GR + visible matter + invisible matter. I've been involved in various alternate model discussions with cosmologists and I wasn't even a cosmologist, so it is definitely not true that testing alternatives to gravity is the third rail.

The same seems to happen in the climate change debate: there is a huge range of experiments, where anthropomorphic warming is the maximum likelihood model. Many people select a single experiment, find a model with a better fit and then loudly proclaim that anthropomorphic warming is a conspiracy. However, their model is a terrible fit to the other experiments which they did not perform due diligence in checking.

Scientists grow tired of playing politics. If you have an alternate model, it needs to fit a vast set of observations, not a cherry picked one. If you only test against one observation and make a press release about it, you will definitely not be seen as a serious scientist.

[oldandtired]

My apologies that it has taken some time to respond to your points. The problem I have is that cosmologists incorporate entities that have not been experimentally verified or are impossible (at least at this time) to be experimentally verified. Just because the models appear to work actually means nothing when you cannot get any experimental verification of all the elements on which a theory or model depends. Proxy evidence is used to enhance the belief in some specific entities, but proxies are only proxies and the use of such can be very misleading.

To say that "the fundamental truth that there is dark matter..." is problematic from the get go. No experiment has demonstrated that "dark matter" of any kind exists. You cannot say that there is a fundamental "truth" anywhere in science. We have observation, we develop hypothesis which should suggest experiments to test said hypothesis and with further evidence we develop theory. At no point is either hypothesis or theory "truth". Unless, of course, your intention is to make science into a religion.

When it boils down to it, science is a way of developing understanding of the physical world about us. It may lead to changes in one's philosophical or religious viewpoint, but it doesn't have to. It is not the be all and end all of anything. It is simply a means of hopefully increasing one's understanding. Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. There are many examples of experiments and the results that have been considered anathema to the consensus view that the scientists who did those experiments have been made pariahs. This is very problematic as politics and religion become the driving forces that maintain the orthodox view.

There has been and is a significant push for science to be the authoritative voice as to what one should believe. However, science gives no guidance on any matters relating to human interaction or action. If anything, it is a cause of significant problems for human interaction and action.

[haberman]

I think you make a good point overall, and I think anthropogenic global warming should be open to questioning. It should be be able to prevail on its merits in the face of competing theories.

However if you are speaking in terms of what "we know", I think you have to acknowledge that the scientific consensus is that AGW is real. That doesn't prove it is true -- nothing in our world outside of math is ever truly proven. But it puts the burden of proof on doubters to not only provide a different/better theory, but also to explain why everyone else is wrong.

If your position is that everyone else is wrong, but the "actual causes" are not known yet, then you just end up looking like someone who has their thumb on the scale, and is invested in a particular outcome.

[bitL]

> nothing in our world outside of math is ever truly proven

Just biting a bit: depends on the logic you use. The logic might not be true in our Universe, just in mathematicians' heads/idealistic Universe. And even on those idealistic Universes there is no real consensus if they/which are true, or just useful.

Imagine you add Maybe as third value between True and False. Later you might find one Maybe is not enough, you might need four different Maybes. Then suddenly it dawns on you that countable amount of Maybes is the minimum. Then you throw away such logic because it's practically useless, even if it models reality better with the side effect of breaking established math as well. Then you wonder why simple binary logic is quite good in describing many things in real Universe, but you have no means to prove any relation between this logic, math derived from it, and reality you live and observe.

[AstralStorm]

None of the logics mentions even touch the idea of quantifiers. Which is the way most math proofs are written nowadays. It is strictly more powerful than any multivalued logic.

[mannykannot]

Anthropogenic global warming has been extremely thoroughly questioned, both rationally and irrationally, and it still stands.

[haberman]

I agree. My point was only that such questioning is healthy and necessary. But even so, people should not misrepresent what the consensus is.

[oldandtired]

The problem, as I see it, is that the "consensus" view is taken to be true. As has been pointed out elsewhere, the "97% of scientists" who believe that climate change is anthropogenic comes from a study of papers. From what I understand, the 97% is 97% of the 1/3 of papers on climate change that made any reference to climate change being anthropogenic. The other 2/3's made no reference to climate change being anthropogenic or not.

It should be irrelevant what the consensus view may be. If an alternative model or theory is proposed, then the model or theory should stand on its merits not on whether or not it agrees with the consensus view.

My view is that science is about gaining some understanding of the universe about us. If a model or theory is useful in that understanding then good, it is useful. But if a theory or model develops big holes in it then mayhaps we should be looking for alternatives that have lessor holes.

Take the example of study of standard model of sub-atomic physics. Within it, there are some quite large holes that are papered over with theoretical mathematics. Yet, if one steps back and takes another look at what is being seen there are some interesting observations to be made that raise questions about the validity of the standard model.

[TheOtherHobbes]

You’re confusing 97% of scientists with 97% of papers - which isn’t a very scientific thing to do.

As for the Standard Model - scientists would dearly love to find observations thst challenge it, but so far there’s been no consistent, high quality evidence of physics beyond it.

[oldandtired]

The question is 97% of what group of scientists? Secondly, where did the figure 97% come from in the first place?

The standard model requires a couple of base assumptions that are contradictory and problematic.

[mannykannot]

In the beginning, the consensus view was that human activity was not a significant factor in climate change. The consensus came about because of overwhelming evidence. In this matter, the causal relationship is the opposite of what you state, and you are making a false claim about how science works because you refuse to accept the evidence.

[oldandtired]

In the beginning the consensus view was that we were heading for an imminent "ice age" and then that view changes to "hockey stick global warming" and now to cover all bets, climate change.

I have questions that I have posed to climate scientists and if a reasonable answer comes back then anthropogenic climate change is on the cards. But in fifteen years, nary an answer to those questions have come back, so, any prognostications by climate scientists based on their models are, as far as I am concerned, worthless.

As far as the evidence is concerned, it may or may not support an anthropogenic causal regime. But, on the basis of that evidence, I lean towards a non-anthropogenic majority cause for climate change.

As far as how science works, climate scientists make many assumptions about their proxies that have not been verified as being conclusively accurate. There is sufficient evidence, if you actually look around for it, to say that the interpretation of the proxy evidence is either incomplete or wrong or meaningless.