[haberman]

I think you make a good point overall, and I think anthropogenic global warming should be open to questioning. It should be be able to prevail on its merits in the face of competing theories.

However if you are speaking in terms of what "we know", I think you have to acknowledge that the scientific consensus is that AGW is real. That doesn't prove it is true -- nothing in our world outside of math is ever truly proven. But it puts the burden of proof on doubters to not only provide a different/better theory, but also to explain why everyone else is wrong.

If your position is that everyone else is wrong, but the "actual causes" are not known yet, then you just end up looking like someone who has their thumb on the scale, and is invested in a particular outcome.

[bitL]

> nothing in our world outside of math is ever truly proven

Just biting a bit: depends on the logic you use. The logic might not be true in our Universe, just in mathematicians' heads/idealistic Universe. And even on those idealistic Universes there is no real consensus if they/which are true, or just useful.

Imagine you add Maybe as third value between True and False. Later you might find one Maybe is not enough, you might need four different Maybes. Then suddenly it dawns on you that countable amount of Maybes is the minimum. Then you throw away such logic because it's practically useless, even if it models reality better with the side effect of breaking established math as well. Then you wonder why simple binary logic is quite good in describing many things in real Universe, but you have no means to prove any relation between this logic, math derived from it, and reality you live and observe.

[AstralStorm]

None of the logics mentions even touch the idea of quantifiers. Which is the way most math proofs are written nowadays. It is strictly more powerful than any multivalued logic.

[mannykannot]

Anthropogenic global warming has been extremely thoroughly questioned, both rationally and irrationally, and it still stands.

[haberman]

I agree. My point was only that such questioning is healthy and necessary. But even so, people should not misrepresent what the consensus is.

[oldandtired]

The problem, as I see it, is that the "consensus" view is taken to be true. As has been pointed out elsewhere, the "97% of scientists" who believe that climate change is anthropogenic comes from a study of papers. From what I understand, the 97% is 97% of the 1/3 of papers on climate change that made any reference to climate change being anthropogenic. The other 2/3's made no reference to climate change being anthropogenic or not.

It should be irrelevant what the consensus view may be. If an alternative model or theory is proposed, then the model or theory should stand on its merits not on whether or not it agrees with the consensus view.

My view is that science is about gaining some understanding of the universe about us. If a model or theory is useful in that understanding then good, it is useful. But if a theory or model develops big holes in it then mayhaps we should be looking for alternatives that have lessor holes.

Take the example of study of standard model of sub-atomic physics. Within it, there are some quite large holes that are papered over with theoretical mathematics. Yet, if one steps back and takes another look at what is being seen there are some interesting observations to be made that raise questions about the validity of the standard model.

[TheOtherHobbes]

You’re confusing 97% of scientists with 97% of papers - which isn’t a very scientific thing to do.

As for the Standard Model - scientists would dearly love to find observations thst challenge it, but so far there’s been no consistent, high quality evidence of physics beyond it.

[oldandtired]

The question is 97% of what group of scientists? Secondly, where did the figure 97% come from in the first place?

The standard model requires a couple of base assumptions that are contradictory and problematic.

[mannykannot]

In the beginning, the consensus view was that human activity was not a significant factor in climate change. The consensus came about because of overwhelming evidence. In this matter, the causal relationship is the opposite of what you state, and you are making a false claim about how science works because you refuse to accept the evidence.

[oldandtired]

In the beginning the consensus view was that we were heading for an imminent "ice age" and then that view changes to "hockey stick global warming" and now to cover all bets, climate change.

I have questions that I have posed to climate scientists and if a reasonable answer comes back then anthropogenic climate change is on the cards. But in fifteen years, nary an answer to those questions have come back, so, any prognostications by climate scientists based on their models are, as far as I am concerned, worthless.

As far as the evidence is concerned, it may or may not support an anthropogenic causal regime. But, on the basis of that evidence, I lean towards a non-anthropogenic majority cause for climate change.

As far as how science works, climate scientists make many assumptions about their proxies that have not been verified as being conclusively accurate. There is sufficient evidence, if you actually look around for it, to say that the interpretation of the proxy evidence is either incomplete or wrong or meaningless.