[chrisseaton]

Why do you think the chance of dying on a sinking ship would be so incredibly high?

0.75 chance of dying is what you had on the Titanic!

Your number has no relation to reality at all.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_shipwrecks_in_2017

[lainga]

That is why I qualified it as a Fermi estimate. I was guessing randomly.

[fapjacks]

Fermi estimate or guessing randomly: Pick one. They are mutually exclusive.

[lainga]

Good point. I was guessing randomly with justification. If I had guessed that 0.001% or 1000% of all sunk sailors died it wouldn't be a Fermi estimate.

[nkrisc]

It's merely an estimate of order of magnitude.