Is there a service out there that does rate market/tech prognosticators like this? I agree it'd be useful. There are similar ones for, say, politicians or media in general, but I'd like to see an industry-specific one.
Thanks! Do you happen to know one related to tech predictions? I'm thinking of non-stock related predictions, like "X is working on Y feature to be released by Z".
I think a service like that misunderstands investing. The old Druckenmiller quote goes, "it doesn't matter how often you are right or wrong; what matters is how much money you make when you're right, and how much money you make when you are wrong."
Has Tesla's stock price defied gravity up until this point? Sure. But eventually it's going to need some real reason why it's the most valuable car company in America. And, as it's bond prices are showing, there are some serious existential risks to its business.
I think it's fair to take that into account as well, but it's a different measure. One can be interested in accuracy independent of payoff (which of course would be important in investing). A key piece that's missing is the number of failures. People pay attention to the successes.