[xkjkls]

I think a service like that misunderstands investing. The old Druckenmiller quote goes, "it doesn't matter how often you are right or wrong; what matters is how much money you make when you're right, and how much money you make when you are wrong."

Has Tesla's stock price defied gravity up until this point? Sure. But eventually it's going to need some real reason why it's the most valuable car company in America. And, as it's bond prices are showing, there are some serious existential risks to its business.

A short still makes way much more sense here.

[grzm]

I think it's fair to take that into account as well, but it's a different measure. One can be interested in accuracy independent of payoff (which of course would be important in investing). A key piece that's missing is the number of failures. People pay attention to the successes.

[xkjkls]

True, but valuations and predictions don't always follow a simple "right vs wrong" paradigm.