[simion314]

Do you have any math do back up that what I said is wrong? I can try to explain my point better but I see you are ignoring the math so maybe I should not waste my time.(we can reduce the problem to balls in a jar and make things easy)

But think about this, if I killed a person in my first 10 km of driving, what is the chance that will kill 0 after the next 999990, would you bet that I will kill 0 or 1 , more then 10?

[YeGoblynQueenne]

I think what you mean by "maths" is "formulae" or "equations". Before you get to the formulae, you have to figure out what you're trying to do. If the formulae are irrelevant to the problem at hand you will not find a solution.

As to your question- I wouldn't bet at all. There is no way to know.

Here's a problem from me: I give you the number 345.

What are the chances that the next number I give you is going to be within 1000 numbers of 345?

[simion314]

Your problem is not equivalent with what we were discussing about, you need to change it a bit like

I draw random numbers from 0 to Max and I get 345, what is P that next number N is in 100 range near 345?

P = 200/Max; in the assumption that Max >445;

For self driving cars, the probability that a car kills a person for 1 km or road driven is unknown, so you can call it X

Then my self driving car killed a person in first 10 km, What is the probability that a random event will happen in the first 10km from 10^9 km, is 10^(-8)

Say the self driving car would have the probability of killing N people for 10^9 km, this are random,independent events So the probability that a kill will happen in first 10km is N*10^-8,

I hope you notice my point that we can measure something, we do not need to wait for 10 or 100 people to be killed

We are not sure but we can say that is is a very small chance that I will not kill other person in my next 999 990km.

let me know if my logic is not correct, in statistics is easy to do mistakes.