| Your problem is not equivalent with what we were discussing about, you need to change it a bit like I draw random numbers from 0 to Max and I get 345, what is P that next number N is in 100 range near 345? P = 200/Max; in the assumption that Max >445; For self driving cars, the probability that a car kills a person for 1 km or road driven is unknown, so you can call it X Then my self driving car killed a person in first 10 km,
What is the probability that a random event will happen in the first 10km from 10^9 km, is 10^(-8) Say the self driving car would have the probability of killing N people for 10^9 km, this are random,independent events
So the probability that a kill will happen in first 10km is
N*10^-8, I hope you notice my point that we can measure something, we do not need to wait for 10 or 100 people to be killed We are not sure but we can say that is is a very small chance that I will not kill other person in my next 999 990km. let me know if my logic is not correct, in statistics is easy to do mistakes. |