[lkrubner]

This is one of the more interesting things that I learned from the article:

"Uber’s share of all ride-hailing trips has generally declined since 2015 as more competitors entered the NYC market, even as its total number of trips has increased dramatically."

That would have me worried, if I was an investor in Uber.

[godzillabrennus]

I think in general investors are aware that Uber will need self driving cars to stay relevant.

Transportation is going to become a monthly flat rate like a cable bill for local travel via autonomous vehicles and the winners will be the companies that own the fleets and get to charge the tolls.

Owning your own car will be a luxury item.

Owning a gasoline powered car will be an extremely niche luxury item.

Obviously this won’t happen tomorrow but it’s not hard to see the parallels to the horse and buggy industry in this transition.

New players will emerge to be the big names in this new industry and Uber investors hope it will be one of the winners.

[ghaff]

That would seem to be a very urbanite view of the world. A lot of people have good reasons for owning their own personalized vehicle. (Gear, kids, mobile storage locker, etc.) So long as you live somewhere with enough space that storing a vehicle isn't expensive/difficult, given that most of the costs are in mileage, it's hard to see most people giving up ownership.

And, in any case, full door to door autonomy, in at least most locations, is likely a long ways off. Certainly outside of the relevant horizon for Uber investors.

[seanmcdirmid]

Urbanization rates continue to rise, what is true yesterday might not be true tomorrow. Also, in much of the world this doesn’t hold even today. The USA (and to a lesser extent Canada and Australia) are unique in private car oriented culture.

[ghaff]

The United States is indeed near the top of the list in percentage of car ownership, but it's pretty high in most of the developed world. Arguably, there's less of a "private car oriented culture" elsewhere but most adults still own cars nonetheless.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/16/car-bike-or-...

[seanmcdirmid]

Yes, and they often pay a lot more for parking as well as for things like tolls; let's also not forget the cost of the cars themselves, which can be much more expensive than the states (e.g. Denmark, Singapore) or have crazy fast depreciation rates (e.g. Japan). The economics of these different markets are very Unamerican.

[isostatic]

Kids is a big thing -- needing specific car seats means taxis are out until your kids are 12.

That said the average car costs $34k in the US and lasts say 10 years, that's $3,400 a year. Maintenence, taxes, etc another $1500 at least, that's $5k/yr before you move an inch.

While automatic cars may not get rid of everything, many 2 or 3 car families, especially in the suburbs, may drop to 1.

[ghaff]

Your last point is certainly true. Even today, I know people who would have been stereotypical two-car households who now get by with one car + Uber/Lyft/Zipcar/etc. The various services available today definitely make a difference at the margin of one car vs. two cars or barely need to own a car.

[Spooky23]

Normal car expenses are around $0.55/mile for an average car. The average joe pays about $8,000-$8,500 annually for all car related expenses. Some pay more for fancy stuff or utility.

That's why suburbs exist. Financially, it's a much better deal for families on just about any axis.

[isostatic]

With an average 13-15k miles a year, at 20-30mpg that's about 400-750 gallons a year, or $1000-$2000 a year in gas, leaving the vast majority of expense in deprecation and maintenence.

[ghaff]

>leaving the vast majority of expense in deprecation and maintenence.

Depending on the car, gas is probably between about 20% and a third of a car's operating costs (which are typically in the 30 cent to 60 cent per mile range). Although there are a few vehicle costs, like excise taxes, that are more or less independent of distance driven, most car expenses will scale with mileage--especially in regions where rust isn't a major issue.

[Spooky23]

Just for commuting my options are:

- Uber/Lyft would cost about $5k/year for me, and I live about 4 miles from work.

- Bus $360/year, but it would take 60-90 minutes vs 10 via car.

- Cab $7k/year

By the time you add grocery trips, recreational drives, vacations, etc cars make a shit-ton of sense. Not only does a car save money, but it saves time and provides flexibility. There's a reason our entire society is organized around cars.

[FLUX-YOU]

>I think in general investors are aware that Uber will need self driving cars to stay relevant.

Uber won't have self-driving cars for many years. There's no reason to be long on Uber with everything that's happened to it. Especially if Lyft goes public.

[badestrand]

> Transportation is going to become a monthly flat rate > Owning your own car will be a luxury item.

Sorry, but I hate it when people talk about the future like a certainty. It has yet to unfold and many predictions turn out to be wrong. I definitely would not bet against car ownership, especially in the country side.

And maybe there will be an open renting framework where everyone can buy a few cars and put them into the system for anybody to rent for a drive. If Uber does not make the self driving software, what would be their role and strength in 20 years?

[y03a]

While it seems inevitable, I really hope there's going to be a way to do all this without having to authenticate and link a name, credit card and cell phone. I really don't like the idea of not being to travel more than a few miles without being tracked, I hope enough people feel the same way.

[sschueller]

Uber will still be irrelevant even with self driving cars because the automakers will just run their own services without uber. Uber has an app and a user base, that's it.

[Spooky23]

Let me guess... you live in a city and don't have kids. Come back and make this comment in 5 years.

We have monthly flat rate transportation -- it's called a car or a bus. There's no model where trips will be flat rate, because the economics don't work and the marginal value of a trip at a peak time is much higher. There are few <1,000 mile trips that are less expensive on a common carrier than a private car.

[cletus]

There are plenty of reasons to worry if you're an investor in Uber but (IMHO) this isn't one of them.

NYC is big. Really big (like space). It can support a number of wannabes. But you need a certain number of drivers to be able to serve users and the value of Uber is in the areas where you can't support half a dozen wannabes.

For example, I was in Australia recently and discovered that not even Lyft works there (in Perth anyway). This is in a city approaching 2M population and is very much a developed nation (well, except for the Internet).

Think about that: that's a ton of people who are being trained to use Uber. When they travel do you think they're going to pick up whatever the local ride-hailing wannabe app is for some specific city? No.

Uber has a whole bunch of problems but it's clearly a valuable brand at this point.

[mattmanser]

I don't know, every local market has always supported loads of private hire firms. It's a very price sensitive market. And Uber's support for cities isn't great anyway, from my experience.

Like here in Nottingham Uber doesn't support the suburbs 2 years after arrival. You can go there with Uber, just not come back, no-one's around.

A local app with better suburb support is ultimately going to win, as if you can only go one way, Uber becomes annoying.

[specialist]

Forgive my ignorance...

How can Uber not support an area? If a both a driver and a passenger in Goldsport Wyoming both have their apps installed, they can't transact?

[ghaff]

I think he's saying there just isn't much driver availability. I live 40 miles outside of Boston and whenever I've looked there has been little or nothing available. Uber and Lyft might as well effectively not exist in my town although, yes, I can fire up the app and request a ride.

[mattmanser]

Yes, if you go 5 miles outside of Nottingham city centre, you're usually not getting an Uber back. Unless there happens to be one dropping someone off. It's a bit of a chicken and egg problem.

At least with other private hire firms you can phone them up and they'll be there in 10-20 minutes rather than just saying no drivers available.

[cletus]

This surprises and confuses me. As just one anecdote, I got an Uber from a ranch 50 miles outside of Austin back to Austin once.

[nugget]

> Think about that: that's a ton of people who are being trained to use Uber.

Well, they're also being trained to use ridesharing generally. It's pretty low friction to move from Uber to Lyft or another competitor. Think of all the other entry points into that market, like Google or Apple Maps (or any other mapping company) for instance. Once autonomous transportation arrives it also moves from an opex to a capex problem, and that changes the barriers to entry, the headwinds to critical mass, and the competitive landscape significantly.

[isostatic]

This is a key feature of uber. I used uber in LA last year because I've used it in New York, Washington, Toronto, Singapore, Delhi, Sydney, Cairo, Brussels, Paris, Nairobi, Glasgow, London, Manchester, and many more cities.

When I arrive in town I don't research which app to download and register with to get the best solution, I use the one that is the path of least resistence, that's firstly uber, secondly a local cab that's on the street or that the hotel will call for me.

[ropans808]

I believe Lyft only operates in the US.

[wenc]

Yep, though they expanded into Canada recently. (but only in the province of Ontario for now)