[ghaff]

That would seem to be a very urbanite view of the world. A lot of people have good reasons for owning their own personalized vehicle. (Gear, kids, mobile storage locker, etc.) So long as you live somewhere with enough space that storing a vehicle isn't expensive/difficult, given that most of the costs are in mileage, it's hard to see most people giving up ownership.

And, in any case, full door to door autonomy, in at least most locations, is likely a long ways off. Certainly outside of the relevant horizon for Uber investors.

[seanmcdirmid]

Urbanization rates continue to rise, what is true yesterday might not be true tomorrow. Also, in much of the world this doesn’t hold even today. The USA (and to a lesser extent Canada and Australia) are unique in private car oriented culture.

[ghaff]

The United States is indeed near the top of the list in percentage of car ownership, but it's pretty high in most of the developed world. Arguably, there's less of a "private car oriented culture" elsewhere but most adults still own cars nonetheless.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/16/car-bike-or-...

[seanmcdirmid]

Yes, and they often pay a lot more for parking as well as for things like tolls; let's also not forget the cost of the cars themselves, which can be much more expensive than the states (e.g. Denmark, Singapore) or have crazy fast depreciation rates (e.g. Japan). The economics of these different markets are very Unamerican.

[isostatic]

Kids is a big thing -- needing specific car seats means taxis are out until your kids are 12.

That said the average car costs $34k in the US and lasts say 10 years, that's $3,400 a year. Maintenence, taxes, etc another $1500 at least, that's $5k/yr before you move an inch.

While automatic cars may not get rid of everything, many 2 or 3 car families, especially in the suburbs, may drop to 1.

[ghaff]

Your last point is certainly true. Even today, I know people who would have been stereotypical two-car households who now get by with one car + Uber/Lyft/Zipcar/etc. The various services available today definitely make a difference at the margin of one car vs. two cars or barely need to own a car.

[Spooky23]

Normal car expenses are around $0.55/mile for an average car. The average joe pays about $8,000-$8,500 annually for all car related expenses. Some pay more for fancy stuff or utility.

That's why suburbs exist. Financially, it's a much better deal for families on just about any axis.

[isostatic]

With an average 13-15k miles a year, at 20-30mpg that's about 400-750 gallons a year, or $1000-$2000 a year in gas, leaving the vast majority of expense in deprecation and maintenence.

[ghaff]

>leaving the vast majority of expense in deprecation and maintenence.

Depending on the car, gas is probably between about 20% and a third of a car's operating costs (which are typically in the 30 cent to 60 cent per mile range). Although there are a few vehicle costs, like excise taxes, that are more or less independent of distance driven, most car expenses will scale with mileage--especially in regions where rust isn't a major issue.

[Spooky23]

Just for commuting my options are:

- Uber/Lyft would cost about $5k/year for me, and I live about 4 miles from work.

- Bus $360/year, but it would take 60-90 minutes vs 10 via car.

- Cab $7k/year

By the time you add grocery trips, recreational drives, vacations, etc cars make a shit-ton of sense. Not only does a car save money, but it saves time and provides flexibility. There's a reason our entire society is organized around cars.