I can't tell whether the people in this thread claiming this will be the downfall of China are serious. Do you really believe that, or do you just want it to be true because you're afraid of China?
Probably both. Everyone, including and especially China's own citizens, should be very afraid of the current regime and its path towards a surveillance state. I don't think anyone in this thread actually expects China to fall within a few years, but it isn't unjustified to believe that this will be the downfall of China, and that we should be very worried about an upcoming war.
A Chinese civil war would spill all over the place. Look at the chaos surrounding the Syrian civil war and scale it up by at least an order of magnitude. A billion refugees trying to flee across the borders mostly in the east (where population densities are highest) would turn the surrounding countries into giant refugee camps, unless they somehow manage to close their borders.
North Korea is so fragile that it would follow shortly thereafter. South Korea (a US ally) would have a huge mess on their hands.
Japan (another US ally) has got an ocean to protect it, but given the huge shipping volume in the region, shiploads of refugees would try crossing anyway.
So that means that the US would have even more reason to intervene than in other conflicts.
I don't know how much Russia cares about it's eastern territory, but it's unlikely they'd sit around doing nothing.
By now there are 4 countries with nuclear weapons involved, and I haven't even mentioned India and Pakistan, who usually don't appear to be the interventionist type, but they have a common border with China. Who knows how they might react.
Basically, any war involving China is bound to be WW3 levels of bad.
Personally I'm afraid it could result in China attempting an invasion of Taiwan. This could lead to war between the US (as well as other countries) and China.
I doubt the US would actually go to war with China for an invasion of Taiwan. We happily gave Taiwan’s UN seat to China to establish relations and no longer have official relations with Taiwan at all. I don’t think we’d sacrifice the relationship with our largest trading partner over Taiwan. Nor do I think our politicians would sign up for a war against China except in the face of an existential threat.
I doubt the US would not actually go to war with China over an invasion of Taiwan. At the very least, there would be huge consequences in the very quick remilitarization of Japan and the start of a new cold war.
Remember that time the US went to war with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine?
An invasion of Taiwan would likely garner a similar response. Heightened tensions, international sanctions that don’t seem to do much, and yes, increased military presence in nearby allies. Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.
In our highly globalized world. A civil war in China, India, Europe, Russia, or America is almost guaranteed to spill out due vast amount of global resources already being fought over in light skirmishes, proxy wars, and shows of power at various borders.
In China's specific case, India and China are fighting over borders. China and the US (allies) are running into issues over resources in the South China Sea. Also Russia and the US both are increasingly their navy presence in the Pacific. It's a powder keg waiting to go off for sure.
Doesn't seem to me this is a step towards China growing into the preeminent power. More like a small step toward autocratic rule and a cult of personality.
Xi is a fine leader — I don't believe problems would start with him. More so his successor who may have decades of rule.
Yes, this is the story everywhere. It all works this way, until you get old, and your kids think they have a right to the throne and being a old parent you usually have to yield. Also decades of rules would have weakened most institutions who could likely stop this from happening. Then you use military etc to suppress any dissent. And then you have a dynasty in making.