[taway483]

Probably both. Everyone, including and especially China's own citizens, should be very afraid of the current regime and its path towards a surveillance state. I don't think anyone in this thread actually expects China to fall within a few years, but it isn't unjustified to believe that this will be the downfall of China, and that we should be very worried about an upcoming war.

[greggarious]

>it isn't unjustified to believe that this will be the downfall of China, and that we should be very worried about an upcoming war.

Why - will such a civil war spill beyond China's borders?

[yorwba]

A Chinese civil war would spill all over the place. Look at the chaos surrounding the Syrian civil war and scale it up by at least an order of magnitude. A billion refugees trying to flee across the borders mostly in the east (where population densities are highest) would turn the surrounding countries into giant refugee camps, unless they somehow manage to close their borders.

North Korea is so fragile that it would follow shortly thereafter. South Korea (a US ally) would have a huge mess on their hands.

Japan (another US ally) has got an ocean to protect it, but given the huge shipping volume in the region, shiploads of refugees would try crossing anyway.

So that means that the US would have even more reason to intervene than in other conflicts.

I don't know how much Russia cares about it's eastern territory, but it's unlikely they'd sit around doing nothing.

By now there are 4 countries with nuclear weapons involved, and I haven't even mentioned India and Pakistan, who usually don't appear to be the interventionist type, but they have a common border with China. Who knows how they might react.

Basically, any war involving China is bound to be WW3 levels of bad.

[leoc]

While the Cuban Missile Crisis was playing out China and India were fighting a small war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War .

[CogitoCogito]

Personally I'm afraid it could result in China attempting an invasion of Taiwan. This could lead to war between the US (as well as other countries) and China.

[dpark]

I doubt the US would actually go to war with China for an invasion of Taiwan. We happily gave Taiwan’s UN seat to China to establish relations and no longer have official relations with Taiwan at all. I don’t think we’d sacrifice the relationship with our largest trading partner over Taiwan. Nor do I think our politicians would sign up for a war against China except in the face of an existential threat.

[seanmcdirmid]

I doubt the US would not actually go to war with China over an invasion of Taiwan. At the very least, there would be huge consequences in the very quick remilitarization of Japan and the start of a new cold war.

[dpark]

Remember that time the US went to war with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine?

An invasion of Taiwan would likely garner a similar response. Heightened tensions, international sanctions that don’t seem to do much, and yes, increased military presence in nearby allies. Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.

[CogitoCogito]

I don't think that the two are really that comparable. The US is much better equipped to help thwart a Chinese invasion of Taiwan than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion would be very far from an easy operation or even a sure win. And even ignoring America's historical support of Taiwan against China, if China were to successfully invade Taiwan, it would change the security situation of the area to such a degree that even military brass would be vary wary to not take a stand.

> Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.

I'm not sure why you think this is the case. If the US were to try to invade China, then yeah it would basically be unwinnable. But why would the US do that? They would only be trying to contain them. If they could help thwart and invasion and then shutdown the Chinese navy, then they would basically already have won by any reasonable measure.

[Lafcadio]

Not comparable at all. Protecting Taiwan has been a foundational element of American foreign policy. A Chinese invasion would signal to the world a huge shift in power and would effectively be the end of US dominance over the world stage.

[vtange]

Taiwan and Ukraine are very different.

The U.S. doesn't have much history promising Ukraine defense as it was part of the U.S.S.R. during the Cold War. In contrast, Taiwan was practically there since 1949.

Taiwan's economy is multiple times the size of Ukraine's and is comparable to the likes of Saudi Arabia. To not defend Taiwan would send a very bad signal to all American allies that unless you're worth more than Taiwan, we'll sell you out. Assuming China continues to grow more powerful, this also means South Korea would be in danger as well. This is not even accounting the fact that if China controls Taiwan, China will control a majority of sea lanes to Korea and Japan. If she wished then she could interfere with oil supplies to those countries.

Plus the U.S. already goes great lengths to restrict China from acquiring U.S. technology, much of which has supply lines and partners in Taiwan. Letting China take Taiwan would mean a massive change unless you think we'll just accept that every Taiwanese company now will be forced to put backdoors for the Chinese.

[mr_spothawk]

> Remember that time the US went to war with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine?

I know you're joking, but ...

it was a cyber war, and it's still happening :)

[liberte82]

I don't even think the US would go to war with China over an invasion of Japan.

[MollyR]

In our highly globalized world. A civil war in China, India, Europe, Russia, or America is almost guaranteed to spill out due vast amount of global resources already being fought over in light skirmishes, proxy wars, and shows of power at various borders.

In China's specific case, India and China are fighting over borders. China and the US (allies) are running into issues over resources in the South China Sea. Also Russia and the US both are increasingly their navy presence in the Pacific. It's a powder keg waiting to go off for sure.

[nasredin]

You forgot to include Little Rocket Man in your powder keg.

[walshemj]

I think they meant a war with regional powers and/or the USA