[ern]

I don't believe they had any real impact.

It's amazing that massive amounts of money are spent on election campaigns, precisely because candidates believe voters can be swayed. Similarly, massive amounts are spent on on online platforms, because businesses and organizations believe that it's an effective way to reach people.

But combine the two (use of online platforms to attempt to influence an election), and we hear confident pronouncements that it could not have had any impact. It simply doesn't add up.

[skookumchuck]

There are many examples of losing candidates way outspending the winning one. Hillary is one.

To more directly answer your question, spending money does count up to a point - getting your message heard. If people don't like your message, spending more won't work.

[emodendroket]

In fact very few people -- nearly none -- are truly "swing voters" who could plausibly vote for either candidate. Most swing voters identify as "leaning" Dem or Republican and vote with that party as reliably as registered voters of it. Winning an election is about mobilizing your supporters and getting them to show up to the polls. Understanding of this is one reason why there are so many contentious changes to voting laws popping up.

[ddingus]

You are not factoring in the very large number of people who currently aren't voting at all. They haven't really bought into the system, or they are jaded, something.

Those people, giving something to vote for, and explicit good that they can identify with, we'll improve turnout numbers, and can dramatically change the election outcomes.

[emodendroket]

I think I rather explicitly am factoring them in. The party that wins is the party that convinces more of its supporters to go to the polls, not the party that completely changes voters' views with compelling arguments. Obviously whoever doesn't go to the polls is someone who was not mobilized.

[ddingus]

The numbers aren't there. I read 100K, and that's not even going to register. Then I read 500K. Ok, maybe move the needle a twitch.

Clinton spent over a BILLION.

Some are making the case it was really close, which it was. Now, if all that $500k were applied to the region and people , just in the right spot? Could have an impact.

Use that money to fund people on the ground? Bet your ass that will have an impact.

However, exactly none of that even competes with why it was so close.

Was close for a few reasons:

One, first and foremost. Clinton just didn't do the work. I'm not going to argue why, or what, just that work didn't happen. Major league impact.

Two, Clinton told about half her potential support to get lost* Worse, she told people vote their conscience. Worse yet? She told people moderate Republican voters would carry her into the White House. Solid impact.

*Berners, progressives, greens, basically the economic left, which currently isn't represented in American politics, save for the likes of Bernie and a few outliers. Neither party does that.

Now, there is another aspect to all of this not being discussed much at all, and that is the no and protest voters. Protest voters were significant. No voters are huge, and present in nearly all State elections. Some States have good turnout. Many do not.

Let's say for shits and giggles, that $500k spent by "the Russians" mattered somehow, some small amount. And let's just say the points above are somehow factored out.

So it's "just close enough" for "the russians" to "matter."

With me?

What is the single most important thing we can do to reduce that impact:

A. Regulate Internet media, social media to the already morbid degree traditional media is? Complete with consolidation of ownership, and all that which drove people to the Internet anyway?

, or

B. Actually run politics people would want to vote for, and by doing so, bring the no and protest voters firmly into the camp.

You can bet your ass B would marginalize even a 10x "the russians" influence. And make no mistake, I'm being extremely charitable here even speaking to influence, as the numbers just aren't there at all.

And that's why I'm not concerned about this matter. It's a distraction.

We have the crappy election result we do, because people didn't feel they had a good choice. Clinton had issues, Trump is basically all issues. LOL Seriously.

Somehow, most of the politics have moved from explicit public good, real goals, and such, to this implied model, where it's assumed good will happen, if only we the people just agree to something.

The primary example of this happens to be, "I am not Trump", which is a whole lot of what Clinton did, and the implicit good is there for the taking, not hard to miss is it?

On the other hand, say she ran on "Make Medicare For All Happen?"

No contest, and all those gaffes above would have not mattered, she still could not have done the work, whatever, and she would have won hands down.

That's the discussion to have.

I can boil it down into a very simple expression:

VOTE AGAINST or VOTE TO PREVENT HARM do not result in a greater, or common public good. That's implied, but not an outcome a voter can link to their vote easily, and if they do, not with out an awful lot of faith and assumptions.

This is why we have a lot of no voters, and or protest voters.

VOTE FOR, and or VOTE TO MAKE SOMETHING HAPPEN, can very easily result in an explicit, common public good. People can get invested, know what they are working for, and the rest follows easily.

One guy out there is doing that, and his name is Bernie Sanders, and that's why he's the most popular politician out there today.

Here's the money shot on all that: He damn near won a Democratic Party Presidential Primary on small donations, starting with almost no name recognition, 60 plus points down, and near zero dollars, against a well oiled, mature, potent, relevant, well recognized political machine. One of the best in the world at the time.

How?

Actually spoke to the need out there, and we can say whatever we want, there is an awful lot of need out there. Majority need. Need most Americans feel isn't necessary at all.

Yeah, populism.

It's not favored among those of us of means. And that's understandable. No need to vilify anyone. It's just perspective.

Today, money drives most politics, and that's reflected in the policy, and it's reflected in the tepid voting performance too.

It's time to revisit the politics that got us here. We have Trump because we aren't putting the people into the process anywhere near the degree necessary for the majority of them to feel like it's representative.

At best, a majority of them feel it's harm limiting, like "it could be worse, so vote", not "vote, because we need to get health care sane again."

Huge impacts possible here. And should we embrace more of those things, frankly? Outside chatter won't even move the needle, if it even did.

Call Corbyn. The UK is struggling with all this too.

The world is watching. Maybe we should act instead of making theatre.

[ddingus]

By the way, as a sidebar, I want to speak on this for a moment:

Voters can be swayed.

That's not really how it works. We've been using that swayed, influenced type frame for a while now, and it's a big reason why turnout is down, and why elections are often very close.

Politicians, in the classic sense, garner votes. We almost never even use the word "garner" anymore.

That means they attract voters.

The other frame we've been using for too long:

A vote for a third party, no vote, protest vote equals a vote for the dominant party.

A variation on that is spoiler politics. Run someone to compete in a given party, votes get split, the other party has an easy win.

All of that makes some solid sense when we are in the "lesser evil", or "less bad" type frame, which the last election very clearly was for a very large number of voters. That is not to say there were not excited Clinton and Trump voters. There were, no doubt. But the majority really were faced with, "what sucks less" and they were faced with that due to the VOTE AGAINST type framing so often seen.

VOTING AGAINST, or VOTING TO PREVENT HARM, doesn't mean good. It could mean that, but there are no real links, just an implied sense of "less bad" being elevated to "net good" or conflated with "incremental change", itself elevated to "net good."

A VOTE FOR frame, which Sanders actually used, is a strong issue based frame. It's focused on explicit, common, public good.

Here are the implications of that, when we work from a different, garner votes, type frame:

It's irresponsible to run for office, unless one is confident they can garner the votes, or help another to garner those votes.

Why?

Because people can, will and do choose from all of the following choices, not just one party or the other:

Party A Party B No vote Other party vote Write in / protest vote.

That's going to happen. Understanding WHY it happens is critical. Many people want to vote for, not against, and will just do that. Anyone wanting to win an election needs to understand it's not a lock. It's not just one party or the other.

Clinton made this mistake. Lost. Lost despite a very bad opponent.

Failed to do the work to garner the votes to win. It's just not enough to trust the other guy, Trump is so terrible as to insure a win. All those choices being available are why.

People wanting to vote for is why.

Think of it in simple terms.

Say we are selling cars, and the other guys are too.

Compare and contrast:

Buy our cars, because those other guys suck, their cars suck, and they are out to rip you off.

vs

Buy our car, because you will love driving it, the power is sublime, cost reasonable, and it's got all the nice features you want, complete with solid service and support.

The first one assumes you have to have a car. A sale is a given, or at the very least, due to cars leaving the ecosystem, population growth, and other factors, insure a given number of cars will be sold.

Selling by implied good, "the other guys are regrettable and so are their cars" can work. The people, kind of forced to get a car, will probably respond to that.

Now, in the second frame, we are attracting people. They want to buy a car, and we aren't making assumptions about there being forced car sales. We are making an assumption that people who find the value proposition compelling will figure out a way to buy a car.

The more the better! Everyone might want a car!

You get the idea.

Translated to politics, garnering votes means doing that same kind of thing.

It does not mean, "I'm not Trump" is a primary message at all. Maybe that gets said, obviously. But, it really doesn't have to be. No real value there.

Now, here I must say most elections feature a ton of people not voting. We struggle with turnout, and what's the number one and two things people say about that?

Mandatory voting, and or voting on holiday.

That's forcing the first frame into more value than it actually does carry, and nobody can demonstrate forced voting would equal better voting. The more likely outcome may well be more protest or nonsense voting.

Brazil sees a lot of that with it's mandatory voting scheme, as a simple example.

Back to garnering votes.

In this frame, it's selling on value, like the cool car guys selling really compelling cars.

The more aligned the platform is with actual need, actual benefit, put simply, an explicit public good, the higher the number of voters will be.

Garnering votes is actually doing that. Selling the idea of alignment, value, representation as some positive thing in such a way as to motivate people to vote.

They should. We expect them to. We try and shame and blame those who don't, or who don't vote the way we think they should have voted, and more.

But the reality is people have agency, and they vote when they feel making that vote makes sense for them to do, and they vote the way they do, when they feel it makes sense, has value, and such to vote that way.

Agency.

A politican who runs on "I will fight to make Medicare for All happen", for example, running against one who says, "I support the idea of Medicare For All" or who says, "I'm not Trump" has an advantage over their competition.

That advantage is people get invested, they are working for, supporting, donating, phone banking, canvassing, and volunteering for MEDICARE FOR ALL. It's a pretty direct link, and the major impact of doing that goes beyond just garnering serious support from the majority of regular, active voters.

Doing that will bring out jaded, burned out, voters who don't believe, who have given up, don't see the value, and so forth.

Rather than just win a share of a known pie, expand the pie, and win a big share of that expansion too.

Give people a reason to fight for it, not just struggle to limit their decline in living, or some other fairly ugly thing, and they will. Network effects dominate after that.

Obama did this in his first term. Didn't end up governing that way, but his rhetoric packed one hell of a punch.

Sanders did that in his primary run too. Same outcome. Punched well above his expected weight class.

We have a lot of basic problems in the nation. It's getting time to speak directly to them.

That will win elections. A majority of Americans are in real economic trouble today. That's why doing that will win elections.