[emodendroket]

In fact very few people -- nearly none -- are truly "swing voters" who could plausibly vote for either candidate. Most swing voters identify as "leaning" Dem or Republican and vote with that party as reliably as registered voters of it. Winning an election is about mobilizing your supporters and getting them to show up to the polls. Understanding of this is one reason why there are so many contentious changes to voting laws popping up.

[ddingus]

You are not factoring in the very large number of people who currently aren't voting at all. They haven't really bought into the system, or they are jaded, something.

Those people, giving something to vote for, and explicit good that they can identify with, we'll improve turnout numbers, and can dramatically change the election outcomes.

[emodendroket]

I think I rather explicitly am factoring them in. The party that wins is the party that convinces more of its supporters to go to the polls, not the party that completely changes voters' views with compelling arguments. Obviously whoever doesn't go to the polls is someone who was not mobilized.