[twblalock]

Here is a list of countries with the most Facebook users: https://www.statista.com/statistics/268136/top-15-countries-...

The first EU country is #10, and it won't even be an EU country in a few years.

I think Facebook would survive leaving the EU market just fine. I'm sure they really, really don't want to, but they could.

Edit: updated link

[jimnotgym]

Link is not working for me, but if you mean the UK

1) GDPR applies to the UK even if Brexit happens. It is already a matter of UK law. In fact it seems the UK is leading the way to GDPR adoption.

2) It is totally unclear that Brexit is going to cause any changes to the UK/EU regulatory arrangements in anything but name.

[peoplewindow]

Point is that the UK government already has a tax regime. It has no incentive to fine Facebook so much there's a risk of it leaving. The ICO already said that it doesn't intend to use its big new fining powers under GDPR anyway, as there's no need.

The rest of the EU is a bigger question. The EU is desperate for cash. It faces a huge budget shortfall, member states that don't want to pay more and it can't raise a corporation tax itself by treaty. Repeatedly fining tech firms looks like a nice way out for them.

But that said, hopefully the UK will repeal GDPR eventually along with associated EU nonsense like the cookie law.

[jimnotgym]

> Point is that the UK government already has a tax regime. It has no incentive to fine Facebook so much there's a risk of it leaving.

Do Facebook have a presence in the UK? I thought they were headquartered in Dublin? Do Facebook pay tax in the UK? News to me.

> The ICO already said that it doesn't intend to use its big new fining powers under GDPR anyway, as there's no need.

Citation very much needed. The ICO will follow the law. The ICO is using it's DPA powers already. The

> The EU is desperate for cash

The EU organisation is handing rebates back to members at the moment...The UK just got one. Or perhaps you mean countries in the EU. Germany has a budget surplus, so I don't know what you could mean? you sound bitter?

> But that said, hopefully the UK will repeal GDPR eventually a

It seems extremely unlikely that the UK wont retain 'regulatory alignment'. This is actually part of the agreement over NI border? This will also be a prerequisite for a trade deal, and the UK will cintinue to make CE marked goods or they would not be able to sell them

> long with associated EU nonsense like the cookie law.

The EU is already on this one[0] What other 'nonsense' consumer protection law do you want undone?

[0]https://www.carpedatumlaw.com/2017/01/goodbye-cookie-banners...

[DanBC]

> > The ICO already said that it doesn't intend to use its big new fining powers under GDPR anyway, as there's no need.

> Citation very much needed. The ICO will follow the law. The ICO is using it's DPA powers already

You can see how few people ICO impose fines on already, and that they have never imposed the maximum fine.

UK regulators really do take a light touch approach, aiming to get companies to change behaviour.

[jimnotgym]

> You can see how few people ICO impose fines on already, and that they have never imposed the maximum fine

Why would they have to impose the maximum to be effective?

The maximum sentence for arson in the UK is life imprisonment, something you are unlikely to see imposed. That doesn't mean that everybody is going to start torching their houses for the insurance.

> UK regulators really do take a light touch approach, aiming to get companies to change behaviour.

Maybe the German ones did too, but Facebook chose to ignore them?

Here is a recent DPA case against a non US company btw[0].

[0]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42637820

[stordoff]

> The maximum sentence for arson in the UK is life imprisonment, something you are unlikely to see imposed. That doesn't mean that everybody is going to start torching their houses for the insurance.

And if you did see that, I suspect you'd start seeing that maximum imposed more - there's no reason why the ICO wouldn't do the same if lower fines were ineffective.

[manmal]

Leaving the EU would have very strong network effects and is IMO not an option for Facebook. The entry barrier to social networks is so low now that this could trigger a mass exodus in the rest of the world.

[x0x0]

Why do you think social networks have cross country network effects? Xing and VK seem to be doing just fine.

[manmal]

They are doing ok AFAIK, but are almost two orders of magnitude smaller than FB, user wise. I don‘t think Xing is even doing that well, they have started very aggressive monetization tactics recently, like forcing people to purchase a pro account in order to view incoming friend requests.

[stordoff]

I don't know about _strong_ network effects, but part of the appeal of Facebook (for me) is that it's universal - visitors to the country (e.g. exchange students) and people I've met overseas (holidays) are all in one place. Further, it doesn't result in you being introduced to (possibly better) Facebook alternatives in those situations. It may not a strong effect, but there is definitely small cross-country effects IMO.

[stochastic_monk]

I’m completely unfamiliar with VK, but I’d love to believe that it’s a subtle nod to the Voight-Kampff test.

[x0x0]

sorry, vkontakte / vk.com

[peoplewindow]

Leaving doesn't mean erasing all the profiles. It just means shutting down local corporate presences. It'd suck for the employees but Facebook can run things out of Palo Alto just fine.

I'm not sure what it'd involve for contracts and payments. But many EU firms have US legal presences too. They could easily buy ads on Facebook through their US presence. Multi-nationalism works both ways.

[manmal]

The GDPR does not allow international players to store data on EU citizens without conforming to the rules. So if FB leaves in order to avoid conformance, then they have to delete all EU citizen data.

[kasey_junk]

The point is without a European corporate presence the EU loses its ability to enforce GDPR.

[manmal]

You are right, this might be the case, someday.. but as long as they have their tax-free money parked in the EU, removing all legal entities from the EU will be very expensive..

[kaybe]

Can ads be sold internationally that easily?

[kasey_junk]

No idea but GDPR gives folks a lot of reason to figure it out.

[Xylakant]

Let them buy ads targeted to their EU customers through their US presence, fine the EU firm for circumventing the rules. Hard? Yes. Impossible? No.

[peoplewindow]

From the perspective of the US company, then it's not them getting fined so not their problem. And if the EU wants to fine its own companies for buying adverts, they can go right ahead and do that. Doesn't seem very practical for the local economy though.

[tripzilch]

Yeah but there's many other, compliant, ways to advertise so they'll just do that instead.

[sgift]

That assumes that the more people Facebook has in a country the more important that country is. I think the wealth of people in a country / block plays an important role in that consideration. And EU countries are far richer than most other countries.

[hashmal]

There is a difference between looking at the first EU country in a list and the EU as a whole.

It's not a market you can decide to leave on a whim if you're a serious business.

[twblalock]

Heh, wrong link. It should be https://www.statista.com/statistics/268136/top-15-countries-...

[lima]

Wrong link :-)

[twblalock]

Oops!