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monktastic1
3084 days ago
I'm not sure I'm understanding. It is a well-defined probability question to ask about the "expected number" of planets with life if there are 10^24 of them each with probability 10^-24, and the answer is 1.
1 comments
V-2
3084 days ago
Yes it will be approaching 1, the same as for 10^24 coin tosses the number of heads would be approaching 50% (or 5*(10^23)).
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monktastic1
3084 days ago
Given the definition of "expected value," it is
identically
1 (as opposed to merely "approaching it"). Sorry, I'm not trying to be pedantic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
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V-2
3084 days ago
You're absolutely correct - not being a native English speaker, I read "expected value" as a common phrase, not a probability theory term. Thanks
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