[graphene]

(EU national in London) Not at all. I think the doomsday threats are overblown and the negotiating parties will reach a mutually beneficial deal at the 11th hour.

Much more concerned about the possibility of the current Labour party gaining power actually.

[barrkel]

I think the chances of a deal are about 70% and trending lower.

The only fudge that can work at the 11th hour is staying in the EU in all but name; there is no way the EU can agree to something non-disruptive quickly without risking it continuing on indefinitely, which means it needs to be almost identical to what went before. And I don't think the Tories can sell that to either the public or their own membership.

A mutually beneficial deal will never happen; the UK cannot come out of Brexit better than before. Any mutual benefit can only come after the UK has climbed out of a pit scary enough to put off any further risk of countries leaving.

If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though, and the risks all seem to be on the downside - painting the EU as intransigent and punishing.

[johneth]

> If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though

I think it might. Polls on the subject have been tightening, and even showing signs of moving towards halting leaving[1].

I think as more of the leave voters die off (as they were predominantly older voters), and realisations about the actual real-world consequences of leaving filter through to the public consciousness, the process may be halted, softened, or reversed.

That's mostly conjecture (and hope, honestly) on my part, though.

[1] https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/918740988365074432

[bonniemuffin]

Yeah, I spent most of last year having thoughts like this about Trump becoming president. He'll never get nominated.... he won't win.... yeah but surely something will happen at the 11th hour, he can't possibly become president, it's too crazy...

And now look where we are. I'm not sure your optimism is warranted. We're living in strange times.

[Boothroid]

US economy is doing pretty well under Trump, no?

[dsr_]

No, the US stock market is doing pretty well. These are different things.

[abritinthebay]

That’s not how economics works. The economy was depressed due to the election year (uncertainty) and bounced back.

Any additional growth is mostly attributable to Obamaera policy (tho some short term juicing of markets has happened under Trump occasionally).

[mattgibson]

Trump has done almost nothing to change it. It's doing well because of Obama.

[mi100hael]

We're coming up on a year of record highs. How long does one have to wait until a President is allowed to take credit?

[pjc50]

People should describe a policy, and a means for that policy to have made a difference to the economy, when taking credit. Otherwise it's like taking credit for the sun rising.

[abritinthebay]

At the very least until their first budget goes into effect. This is not a new concept. It's why the stupid right wing memes in like.. April were all "Obamas first 100 days vs Trumps first 100" - because Obama was dealing with the freaking recession and the Bush policies and budget.

Again - this is not new.

[zeveb]

> How long does one have to wait until a President is allowed to take credit?

Depends on whether the hearer likes or dislikes him.

[dx034]

Economic growth is not the only reason to live in a country.

[maxehmookau]

This is wishful thinking, to put it mildly. What on earth concerns you about a labour government?

[ralmidani]

Aside from tolerance for Antisemitism, being soft on Russia, picking and choosing on human rights (e.g. Syria), and appealing to base instincts on immigration (Eastern Europeans are keeping your wages down), what's so bad about Corbyn-led Labour?

[zimablue]

Antisemitism: mainstream Labour isn't antisemitic, that was largely a point pushed in our right media to discredit them. The left wing of the party is definitely anti-Israel though, and pro-Israel forces always try to conflate the two. The Labour party is much, much less racist than the Tory party on average, it's the sort of thing that's hard to prove with a neat fact you just have to spend time in a pub with either side or read a lot of their literature for dog-whistles. soft on Russia: who knows, it's not like we have the military clout for it to matter much picking and choosing on human rights: doesn't everyone immigration racism - no, Corbyn's message (that i also disagree with actually) is to redirect the focus onto exploitative employers. It's his talking point on immigration along with NHS staffing, every time. The labour party has gotten worse on this but they're still miles behind the Tories

Sorry to do politics on HN but this post needed to be called out, none of these points are a combination of relevant and applying more to Labour than the Tories.

[pjc50]

Don't all of those apply to conservative party as well? (Perhaps substitute Islamophobia for antisemitism)

[abritinthebay]

Yes, yes they do. Except more so.

[maxehmookau]

Oh I see. It's Corbyn's right-wing credentials that put you off him. Of course.

[ralmidani]

I'm neither left nor right. Corbyn manages to bring together the worst of both worlds.

[SideburnsOfDoom]

It doesn't matter how left-wing a politician appears to be, or even how left-wing they are in general; if they hold an odious reactionary opinion, they can be called out on that opinion.

[curtisblaine]

Taxes are concerning. More taxes on the medium-upper class.

[pjc50]

> negotiating parties will reach a mutually beneficial deal at the 11th hour

Compare with the situation of Greece. There was essentially very little change in the EU position, and Greece eventually realised they had no leverage and would be worse off outside the EU and had to acquiesce.

The only deals that have a chance of happening are "forget the whole thing, no Brexit" or maybe "Norway" (EEA including free movement, but no voting rights). "No deal" would be a disaster.

And if it's left until the 11th hour plenty of companies will have no choice but to avoid planning beyond that time. Like Ryanair pointing out that they can't take bookings without knowing what legal framework will be in place: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/ryanair-chief-mic...

Addendum: this article by Gordon Guthrie, Erlanger and former extremely minor politician, sums up the lack of choice: https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/no-deal-wont-happen-e185f9...

[bostik]

The 11th hour is already at hand. Some pretty big players are ready to trigger their contingency plans if certainty about future remains unclear: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/eu-transiti...

[gordonguthrie]

Minor politician, ya cheeky git ;-)