[barrkel]

I think the chances of a deal are about 70% and trending lower.

The only fudge that can work at the 11th hour is staying in the EU in all but name; there is no way the EU can agree to something non-disruptive quickly without risking it continuing on indefinitely, which means it needs to be almost identical to what went before. And I don't think the Tories can sell that to either the public or their own membership.

A mutually beneficial deal will never happen; the UK cannot come out of Brexit better than before. Any mutual benefit can only come after the UK has climbed out of a pit scary enough to put off any further risk of countries leaving.

If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though, and the risks all seem to be on the downside - painting the EU as intransigent and punishing.

[johneth]

> If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though

I think it might. Polls on the subject have been tightening, and even showing signs of moving towards halting leaving[1].

I think as more of the leave voters die off (as they were predominantly older voters), and realisations about the actual real-world consequences of leaving filter through to the public consciousness, the process may be halted, softened, or reversed.

That's mostly conjecture (and hope, honestly) on my part, though.

[1] https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/918740988365074432