[ajross]

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs.

Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has already threatened to nuke them if they even so much as continue issuing threats. Not only did they up the threat ante within hours of that remark (c.f. "attack the waters around Guam"), they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace. Where do we go from here?

[jonnathanson]

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw.

Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who emerges the big winner on the world stage.

[krapp]

We get the leaders of Japan, China and South Korea together on a conference call and all agree not to start World War 3 when China decides to push through some "regime change." Why would China do this? Because North Korea is useful to them as a buffer state and a proxy to aggravate the West, but only so long as they can be controlled. Once they pose a real threat to their neighbors, they also pose a real threat to China. And China would rather have the chance to prove its dominance than let US do so.

So, Kim Jong-Un accidentally trips down the stairs and lands head-first on a bullet, along with his entire regime, and we all look the other way, and the US sends everybody lots and lots and lots of money.

[ajross]

The problem with that plan is that China has only marginally more control over Kim than we do. He's a rogue from their perspective too, and their ability to effect a "regime change" is limited by the same "don't poke the nuclear nutjob" problem we have.

[dforrestwilson]

There's some truth to that (see the recent Malaysian assassination under the nose of Chinese security), but China very clearly has benefited from the status quo and I would bet that there are powerful people in the NE region of China who do have influence and are pedaling it like mad right now.

[lostmsu]

I am not convinced that Kim is rogue. How do you know his actions are not dictated by China?

[boomboomsubban]

We can't know, but there's no reason to suspect they are. Why would China want a North Korea able to nuke Beijing? Why impose sanctions on North Korea if they're following your orders? And when has North Korea ever listened to anyone?

[jonnathanson]

China has been playing a dangerous game in nurturing the Kim regime and allowing it to obtain nuclear weapons. China has benefitted over the years from the presence of a hedge on its border against the US and South Korea, and from the frustrations the Kims have caused for the US, South Korea, and Japan. But it's been keeping a wild animal as a pet in its own backyard, and now that animal's got claws and rabies.

Interestingly enough, I see the emergence of common ground between Washington and Beijing on this issue. Sooner or later, China is going to calculate that Kim Jong-Un is more trouble than he's worth. When that happens, I can see the US and China arranging an unwritten agreement to take out Kim in exchange for the US's acceptance of the legitimacy of the North Korean state.

That would be a bitter pill for the US and its allies to swallow. But it seems preferable to the current course and speed of events, which basically have Kim developing usable ICBMs within a decade or less. To assume that a growing nuclear arsenal will somehow make Kim less of a threat, or endow him with a newfound sense of global stewardship and responsibility, is to place a particularly strange bet.

[dahdum]

"I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who emerges the big winner on the world stage."

NK is entirely dependent on China, and every administration has tried to get them to do something about their unruly vassal state. Unfortunately the status quo is what they desire most, so absent escalation they won't do anything.

[astrodust]

Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing.

The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get.

North Korea is really smacking the bear around with a stick here seeing how far they can go before they get bit.

[jonnathanson]

China doesn't want this mess getting any messier. At the end of the day, both Trump and Kim are wild cards, and a simple fuckup could blow nuclear fallout and/or waves of refugees over the Chinese border.

Meanwhile, China can come out a big winner by seizing this opportunity to play the adult in the room while simultaneously embarrassing the US. Trump has handed this win to Xi in a tidy little gift box.

[baklavabook]

You're giving China too much credit. China is the entire reason why North Korea exists. Everyone knows this.

[jonnathanson]

Yes, and North Korea's continued existence is useful to China. If this pet bites the hand the feeds it, China can euthanize it and select a new pet. Plenty of generals ready to take Kim's place and consolidate power over NK with China's assistance.

[justonepost]

Yeah, this is all Chinas fault. No matter what they don't come out looking good.

[helthanatos]

North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.

[jahaja]

That people can casually accept the massive loss of lives this would cause is bewildering.

[lostmsu]

Imagine that person believes, that if that's not done, alternative is WW3. Can you guarantee that's not going to happen? What if they actually nuke something, and then China will follow?

[helthanatos]

Not really. Preserving us is more important than preserving them.

[Aharito]

Even if we just remove the missile sites, and any sort of nuclear ordinance on the first attack, they don't really have nearly as much as they claim capable of hitting Seoul[1], and even then it can only hit the northern 3rd of the city, which is less populated. The city itself has put a lot of work into infrastructure in preparation, enough bunkers and shelters to house 20 million. Yes, it will get hit, people will die, but as long as no nuke comes down, I'd consider than a win, for eliminating such a dangerous tyrant.

Of course, coming to terms with China will be an entirely different matter.

1: https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-th...

[astrodust]

Being shelled so severely that Seoul looks like Pyongyang is not a win here.

[astrodust]

I don't think you have any idea how many pieces of artillery they have, nor how many tunnels there are going beneath the DMZ. They are ready to cause as much destruction and chaos as their 1950s era arsenal can inflict.

It would take thousands of cruise missiles to even dent their defenses. You can't use bombers until the anti-aircraft systems are down. It's going to take hours to finish the job, and even then who knows what they've launched in that time. Seoul is an easy target, very hard to miss.

[sundvor]

I read(1) that only the northern part of Seoul the city is in striking distance of their (somewhat limited in numbers) long range artillery, and that there are lots of shelters e.g. the way the subway system doubles up as being bunkers.

However the civilians part between Seoul and the DMZ, home to millions, is not going to fare exceedingly well - if the North decides to "waste" their ammo on civilians instead of the military that will be hitting them back.

1) https://www.quora.com/Can-North-Korean-artillery-really-kill...

[jonnathanson]

Indeed, it is hard to overstate the damage NK could wreak on Seoul, even in the opening hours of a full scale conflict. Roughly half of the population of SK lives in the greater Seoul metro area. Artillery barages could claim millions of lives, and wreak economic devastation, and we're not even talking about nukes yet. I don't relish the thought of Kim, backed into a corner, fearing total oblivion, his fingers fluttering inches away from the big red button.

[KekDemaga]

I suspect that the US has had the capability to disable ICBMs for some time now. (See patriot missile system and iron dome and remember Regan's star wars project and its not a big leap to make) I think it's just a matter that we don't want to let would be nuclear assailants know until they have already committed.

[hatsunearu]

Yes, it's called the THAAD and it has been recently deployed in SK after a long debate.

[astrodust]

"Mister President, there's been a launch. There's six missiles heading for California and Washington state."

"Not now, I'm busy."

"Put down the phone, Sir. This is isn't a drill."

[baklavabook]

As much as I hate Trump, none of this is his fault. If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible actor to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean government would have already fell long time ago.

So what happens now? Do we just let China keep protecting its puppet until the puppet has shipped a nuclear bomb to a port in Los Angeles? I hope not. I hope the world takes action before then.

[ajross]

North Korea's brinksmanship isn't Trumps fault. The ham fisted diplomacy which has left us with no good options in the face of their escalation absolutely is. The Obama administration managed to keep the system in something like a steady state for eight years, after all. It's getting out of control now for a reason.

[Ting-wei]

That is it. China has full control over its huge border to NK. No way for them to import missile parts unless China is OK with that. Everything of value that NK has and that its elite enjoys is imported from China: Cars, buses, flat-screen TVs, mobile phones...

Plus, China could cut or reduce the oil/gas supply any day to zero.... if they wanted.

[keganunderwood]

I agree. DPRK should keep its nuclear weapons. I am more concerned about nukes in the Indian peninsula when it comes to world security. How good is Pakistan at keeping its nuclear arsenal safe? How good is India? Can we trust them to be competent?

What we should focus on is strengthening the democracy and the economy of ROK so when DPRK fails, ROK can be independent and strong like Germany was in the nineties in its unification. We are nowhere close.

[xxxdarrenxxx]

Agreed, this is not Trumps fault.

To me it all feels like the classic "I dare you to punch me"

[wyatte]

The idea of NK dropping a nuke anywhere is just utter non-sense. It's obvious that all the threats, from both sides, are nothing more than sabre rattling and when you look at the actual actions of nations the US has done really terrible things, while NK has done very little, yet everyone seems to be OK with the US having thousands of nukes under the control of a psycho leader, but can't handle the idea of NK having some nukes to protect themselves.

What a load of malarkey.

[wisdomdata]

NK will not be going to war, unless by miscalculation. Kim knows that of all the scenarios in a war, none end with him munching on caviar in a palace. There are two major powers that would make certain of that. Why do you think he was so keen to assassinate his half brother?

[maruhan2]

This is where I couldn't figure out his motive. He clearly wants to maintain his reign, but if so, why did he start provoking in the first place?

[jonnathanson]

Because Kim's reign is predicated on maintaining credibility with his generals. He does that by rattling his saber and extracting economic concessions from the global community in general (and the US in particular).

Why he needs to go precisely this far is a good question. Possibly because Trump has consistently misplayed his hand and made a series of stupid bluffs that were quick and easy to call. Kim is probably testing the edges of his geopolitical box, figuring that it's a bit roomier than he'd previously calculated.

[ams6110]

Well he already backed off on his Guam threats. How much credibilty does that gain him with his generals, and how did Trump misplay that exactly?

[TazeTSchnitzel]

The threats are to extract concessions.

The nukes are to make them too dangerous to invade.

[rapind]

Some say too dangerous not to invade. It's a complicated situation and there's no easy choice IMO.

[fao_]

> they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace.

Have you studied a map around NK? To get a missile to a target that's free of people in international waters, you have to fly through at least one country's airspace.

[cattlefarmer]

Flying over open water is one thing. The missiles flew straight over populated land.

[fao_]

Again, there is literally no way for NK to fly the missles to the water WITHOUT going over populated land. Study a map for god's sake.